It's hard to target AAPL since it's being traded to all time highs. However, many analysts have upped their outlook on AAPL yesterday to buy ranging from 315-325. Could it get there??? Possibly. imo... I think it'll rally to 310... since that's another 50% gain today... of the rally starting in mid March and this number is somewhat close to the analysts expectations.
Guys, you were kinda mean to EDT. That being said, it's kind of entertaining seeing his hubristic arrogance get deflated in such an epic way edit: didn't want to get flamed too hard so I deleted some of it
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704830404575200362577226100.html Seven Reasons Apple Shareholders Should Be Cautious"
Look at the chart formation! It looks like a giant finger!!! OP says ET ain't his world. But OP hanging around in the Career Trader Forum all the time. Wonder what his career is at all.
Terrible reasons & poor recommendation. The only reason it's not a terrible recommendation is because the risk is limited to about 7% of the stock price. Still, that's about 9 months worth of market returns, hardly chicken feed for a mere 18 months protection. And there is nothing to stop it going to $210 by Jan 2012, then falling to $100 just after your options expire. The only rationale for buying those puts as a hedge is if for some reason you think there is risk of a permanent decline <$200 (in which case you'd not be long the stock at $270), and that you also strangely think that risk only exists between now and Jan 2012, which obviously is ridiculous. Let me make this clear - if you think APPL is overvalued at $270, then the only course of action as an investor is to sell the stock. Not hedge with puts, not pussyfoot around, not use a stop - just sell. Let me now cover the 7 reasons and why they are terrible reasons for basing any kind of buy/sell decision on. 1. Competition is so bad. Er, and this is a bear point how exactly? Also, no one back in 2002 said the competition was terrible. They thought Nokia and Microsoft kicked ass. The competition is only terrible because Apple made them terrible in comparison by Steve Jobs obsessive perfectionist approach to design. 2. Apple fatigue. I got Windows fatigue around 1995. That was not a predictive factor for the stock of Microsoft. It has nothing to do with the valuation or investment case. Ditto for Apple today. When you read Security Analysis, not once do they say "A stock is overvalued and must be sold if you personally get tired of press coverage of the business". 3. The share price. He says its doubled. Microsoft doubled in the late 80s. Apple doubled in 2003. That was not a reason to sell. Past share price performance has nothing to do with current valuation. Ditto for the market comparison. By definition, the company that grows market cap the most in a decade is going to regularly overtake the market caps of its peers. That is not evidence that it is overvalued, only evidence that it is being valued more highly for various reasons. If the reasons are legit, such as higher profits and higher future expectations that get met, then the higher valuation is also legit. 20 times earnings is hardly a stratospheric valuation. 4. Steve Jobs ego. Yes, that has worked out so terribly for Apple hasn't it. 5. Cellular networks. Yes, businesses really hate partnering with suppliers who massively increase demand for their services. Doh. 6. Apple backlash. I'll believe it when I see it. Compared to Microsoft and Google, Wal-Mart and Exxon, not to mention the average US mega-cap corporation, I think Apple stacks up fairly well on the image front. 7. Steve Jobs health. Yes, it will tank the stock 10-20% if he dies overnight. Ditto with Buffett. That doesn't mean it was a good idea to sell your BRK stock back in 1980. This is lazy incompetent blabber masquerading as journalism.
One more week to go.... you've been wrong about one thing. as silly as the ipad sounds... it's been a hot item. as much as i've been trying to resist being part of the 'apple community'... i am not sure about other gadgets currently in demand. imo... the android has been disappointing thus far...