Ok, i have used this site for 2 years or so and must assume people stupid until proven otherwise. So now let's talk business. I must admit I mostly trade equity options rather than fx
I trade it all, albeit many factors smaller notional than the OP. This whole thing got unnecessarily nasty, so let's leave be. I have an active journal over in the journal forum. Anyone is welcome to chit chat about anything at any time.
You’re no genius yourself: Ask yourself this same question. Instead of the “Intellectual” pissing matches, can we talk about FX, please?
I am definitely not a genius at all, but you guys started posting stupid nonsensical stuff first ----------------------------- I might be the minority opinion here but, if all the other countries China, South Korea, European Union, Argentina, etc. economies are now struggling and trying to drive up exports, devaluating their currencies is the first natural step to make the cost of their products cheaper, wouldn't that drive the value of the dollar higher and not lower? A lot of these currencies are paired with the US dollar. China should drive its currency lower as a minor counter measure in view of the US imposing 30% tariffs on Chinese products. Also, with the very low interest rates, the world over, wouldn't foreigners now invest their monies in the US? Buying real estate, stocks, even treasury bills in the flight to safety? Wouldn't that drive the value of the dollar higher? When there is demand for something, the prices head higher and not lower?
I think the OP knows what he is doing. I agree with him on the short USD. I looked at the USDX historical data. There's not much to go on, but I see the USD weakening till maybe Feb, 2020. I don't want to post the chart I'm looking at as it may reveal how I do my cycles which I wish to keep to myself how to do it.
From risk and reward, there are tons of options that are better than shorting USD. Besides, it is not that USD will be down in the futures so I will short it. This is a loser's way of thinking. If you short it, and it goes up, will you stop? Where is your stop? Soros shorted equity when nasdaq was at 3000, and he had to cut loss later since nasdaq run to 5000. he was right that nasdaq would be down later but he was still doing a losing trade. So it doesn't matter whether USD will be down in the future. What makes your trade winning or losing is whether it go up first or go down first, and if it go against you, can you survive it? So it is not future market direction that matter, it is the path of future market direction that matter. An experienced trader will never short something even if he knows it will be down in the future. He will short it only if he knows it will be ALL THE WAY down from here .