There you go again with the ad hominem attacks. It's getting you nowhere, and only makes yourself look pompous. Time to tidy up this amorphous debate that has become a string of simplistic generalizations, and attacks on the other's intellectual and psychological capacity. Have you ever thought to ask me how I define "doom?" It seems to me that you think all doomers think of giant asteroid events or mad max scenarios. Maybe it's more nuanced than that? But I think I see where you're coming from. This blurb tells me a lot: Yes civilization has continued for 10,000 years when one takes a macro view. But ask the opinions of the victims of the Khmer Rouge, Auschwitz survivors, Stalin's victims, the losing tribe in Rwanda, Byzantium post Palaiologus, the Argentinians during their debt crisis, the Soviets post USSR, and what happened to the people that built those pyramids at Giza, or the former occupants of Easter Island. I'm sure many ridiculed Marshal Foch at the treaty of Versailles when he stated âThis is not peace; it is an armistice for 20 years.â My point is, that civilization, power, and global resource allocation ebbs and flows thru-out time, and affects different parts of the world differently. That conflict will always persist, and that mankind's greed generally resurfaces with a vengeance after the lessons of past generations slowly dissipate, only to be rediscovered yet again - the hard way. Ours are interesting times. The events of the past twenty years have been both wondrous and/or potentially tragic. With GATT and the subsequent formation of the WTO, four billion people willing to work for a fraction of our wages have entered the global work force. The Soviet Union collapsed. Resource wars continue. The global map I learned in the late 1970s has been redrawn drastically. We adopted a new form of currency merely 38 years ago when we closed the gold window - the jury may still be out on that one. The internet has fundamentally changed how we communicate globally and how we exchange money - in mere miliseconds. Weapons can knock out a country in hours. Resources getting depleted with the increased participation of the former "third world" into the global economy... GM and Chrysler bankrupt. Ford against the ropes. Banking system collapsed but for effectively 20 some trillion in government backstops. Massive deleveraging of the consumer. National debt doubling within Presidential terms - first with Bush, and now it seems, with Obama. Western governments, already bloated with massive deficits, will be taking on the entitlements of your generation. Global wage arbitrage taking away jobs, forever? or at least chiseling down salaries. Those that spout a recovery is shortly at hand neglect one thing. A recovery implies a return to a prior date. There is no returning to a prior date when in that recent past the monetary system grew thru reckless lending, spending, securitization, and corporate/banking malfeasance or miscalculation of risk. That system is in its deathroes. Will mankind still progress? Sure. But can the average American rely on a constant supply of cheap fuel and easy access to credit to maintain a lifestyle of growing 401Ks, dreams of retirement trips to Hawaii, and the continuation of the excessive consumption of "stuff" while the rest of the world's buying power is growing? I'm not so sure about that. The US economy, and society to a large degree attained a high level of complexity these past few decades. Much of that based on a overly expansive monetary system and cheap energy. We will enter a period of decomplexification. It will likely be gradual, with times of acceleration. That's my "doom" view. No Meteors, no re-emergence of cave dwelling societies, no lights out forever. But the democratization of credit and college educations and millions of people typing on keyboards for ridiculous salaries because a monetary debt based asset inflating system grew beyond revenue/income sustainability is over. Prior to the Fall of 2008, State, Municipal, Federal, corporate, and individual budget projections relied on a certain price for oil and a certain price and availability of money and ever increasing revenues and incomes. That's over for the indeterminate future. And thus, those budgets need to be revamped. The Federal Government can take up the slack and create a mirage of maintained prosperity for only so long. So yes... 3rd grade math is relevant and it is being ignored. Only because politically, the truth is too difficult to reveal and accept. And that's a good thing to a degree. We don't want massive panics accelerating this period of decomplexification. But at the same time, popular ignorance allows the elites to get away with looting. Catch 22.
Yes civilization has continued for 10,000 years when one takes a macro view. But ask the opinions of the victims of the Khmer Rouge, Auschwitz survivors, Stalin's victims, the losing tribe in Rwanda, Byzantium post Palaiologus, the Argentinians during their debt crisis, the Soviets post USSR, and what happened to the people that built those pyramids at Giza, or the former occupants of Easter Island. ** Yep, that is called history. If nothing happened the history books could be shortened to say "same as it always was". Tribes, cities, nations, rise, decay and fall. It will always be the case. Our species adapts. I'm sure many ridiculed Marshal Foch at the treaty of Versailles when he stated âThis is not peace; it is an armistice for 20 years.â ---- Form you lack of understanding of the difference between arithmetic, higher math and CI, I would not think you could get much in the way of a senior command job. The Marshal is safe My point is, that civilization, power, and global resource allocation ebbs and flows thru-out time, and affects different parts of the world differently. That conflict will always persist, and that mankind's greed generally resurfaces with a vengeance after the lessons of past generations slowly dissipate, only to be rediscovered yet again - the hard way. Ours are interesting times. --- Yep all times are interesting. The decline of whale oil production for lamp lighting in the late 19th century looked pretty bad, until Edison invented the light bulb. It's a tragedy from which many lamp wick making companies have yet to fully recover. The events of the past twenty years have been both wondrous and/or potentially tragic. With GATT and the subsequent formation of the WTO, four billion people willing to work for a fraction of our wages have entered the global work force. The Soviet Union collapsed. Resource wars continue. The global map I learned in the late 1970s has been redrawn drastically. We adopted a new form of currency merely 38 years ago when we closed the gold window - the jury may still be out on that one. The internet has fundamentally changed how we communicate globally and how we exchange money - in mere miliseconds. Weapons can knock out a country in hours. Resources getting depleted with the increased participation of the former "third world" into the global economy... --- You forgot to mention the tragic consequences of the invention of paper money by the Chinese in the 900's. Or the tragic results in data loss when the accounting firms switched from baked clay tablets to papyrus paper for record keeping around 2,000 BCE. Trillions of dollars have bee lost because paper burns and clay does not. I hope we return to clay real soon and least for important documents. GM and Chrysler bankrupt. Ford against the ropes. Banking system collapsed but for effectively 20 some trillion in government backstops. Massive deleveraging of the consumer. National debt doubling within Presidential terms - first with Bush, and now it seems, with Obama. Western governments, already bloated with massive deficits, will be taking on the entitlements of your generation. Global wage arbitrage taking away jobs, forever? or at least chiseling down salaries. --- Do you expect there is a law in either physics or economics that could guarantee no change in anything ever? If we could cool the economy to absolute 0 Kelvin all molecular activity and motion would cease. we could get study state that way, I guess. Those that spout a recovery is shortly at hand neglect one thing. A recovery implies a return to a prior date. -- Don't be silly...you can't go into the past till someone invents time travel. There is no returning to a prior date when in that recent past the monetary system grew thru reckless lending, spending, securitization, and corporate/banking malfeasance or miscalculation of risk. That system is in its deathroes. Will mankind still progress? Sure. But can the average American rely on a constant supply of cheap fuel and easy access to credit to maintain a lifestyle of growing 401Ks, dreams of retirement trips to Hawaii, and the continuation of the excessive consumption of "stuff" while the rest of the world's buying power is growing? --- It called a correction in an unsustainable dynamic system. Happens in natural ecology every day. A decline in he number of small rodents in an ecosystem leads to a decline in the number of animals that eat them. The mice increase and then the hawks increase as well. I'm not so sure about that. The US economy, and society to a large degree attained a high level of complexity these past few decades. Much of that based on a overly expansive monetary system and cheap energy. We will enter a period of decomplexification. It will likely be gradual, with times of acceleration. That's my "doom" view. No Meteors, no re-emergence of cave dwelling societies, no lights out forever. But the democratization of credit and college educations and millions of people typing on keyboards for ridiculous salaries because a monetary debt based asset inflating system grew beyond revenue/income sustainability is over. -- I think it's great. Cheap energy was a foolâs illusion, like a free lunch. People will rediscover the funny things at the end of their legs called feet. Heart disease and obesity will decline once we get off our asses, out of our SUVs and get some exercise! Prior to the Fall of 2008, State, Municipal, Federal, corporate, and individual budget projections relied on a certain price for oil and a certain price and availability of money and ever increasing revenues and incomes. That's over for the indeterminate future. And thus, those budgets need to be revamped. The Federal Government can take up the slack and create a mirage of maintained prosperity for only so long. So yes... 3rd grade math is relevant and it is being ignored. Only because politically, the truth is too difficult to reveal and accept. And that's a good thing to a degree. We don't want massive panics accelerating this period of decomplexification. But at the same time, popular ignorance allows the elites to get away with looting. Catch 22. ---- Is there anything at all in your universe that is positive? anything you can share?
You are a Poet !! this image is beautiful... thx for sharing I hope not ! the Us is strong enough to find the growth in itself... if it unleashed the market. In your version the one who will have to lose the most will be the Us... The ones who wants to decide what's an Intellectual Proprety Nice creative thinking at his best It's so boring... some people can only do this... Einstein would have said : "People love chopping wood. In this activity one immediately sees results. " Hello Misthos, I clearly see what you said in your post. It's well done. I read somewhere that complexity can only emerge in a world with a excedent supply of energy before everything else. Every society ( by it animals or humans ) need a energy surplus to be able to create... The other way is your scenario... However I think that we know how to make dirt cheap energy and cleanly. However the one in the known are waiting to make it avaible... If my theory is wrong it's finished... One the second point that you highlight, I strongly disagree with you. How the people could panic ? Someone need to explain the issue sooner or latter. If it's done in a way that a 6years old can understand, everyone will understand. 6 years old don't panic when they see fact...
So when did the rocket scientists at Wall Street finally figure out that a busboy (dinner plate engineer) can't afford a 500K home? Was it their algorithms that gave it away? I don't like to speak about myself, but I know many millionaires that get by just fine on basic algebra. They enjoy life too. Some of them even employ mathwizards like you. As for anything positive... there is always something positive, take a hike in the mountains... fly fishing... good dinner with great company... generally activities that don't involve a lot of math.
that doesnt make the y2k issue untrue, it make YOU an IDIOT everything, even if it is true at the core, will have those who exploit it what did you think was going to happen if your stereo failed? That it would pull a staelite down from space into your house?
I imagine most of your millionaire buddies got there by pretending they know someting about a topic when they actaully know nothing. I find that immensely impressive in any line of business. I rush to hire and invest with such people! Not being any good at that I'll neer be admitted to their country club...
I'm not even Russian. If I had never moved this thread to chit chat, you'd never even have seen it since everything you post/read/interact with is either in chit chat or the political forum. So what do you care what happens in the economics forum? You're like the forum side show. As for the method of moderation I use, it would appear that you, the OP and cold/c-kid/Jasonn are the only ones who really have issues. Birds of a feather, I reckon.
I moved the first thread. The second and third I had nothing to do with. But I did happen to see Rennick's post: That was rather amusing.
I know you won't admit to being wrong (again) but i moved only one of your threads. The one I said I did. Honestly, If I did move them, I would own up to moving more of your threads, as it gets you pissed off and that's entertaining to see.
Yes, there are just tons of posts about how "shitty" I am. The Feedback forum is littered with them! /sarcasm When was the last one dated? Do you know? Let me know when you feel like posting in the economics forum again so i can move it!