If mocking people that say bad events are possible makes you feel good, then run with it. Guys like you thought I was from another planet 3 years ago. One individual I know bought C in the low 30s couple years ago. I told him he was crazy. He lost about 150K. And I have made most of my money in the past during the bubble times. I was an optimist then because that was the trend. Today, I still do well, but holding onto my money makes me just as happy. Gold has been good to me. Still trade stocks, but focusing on commodities more. Good luck, and if happy thoughts alone make you rich - run with it. I prefer math and reality.
1. You know nothing about what i believe in. the only thing you know is that i think your claims are rather ridiculous. 2. The people posting "in support" of me aren't supporting me or worshiping at all. They're agreeing with me. There's a difference. Now please take your opinionated, lunatic and most of all boring self and do as you said you would in the topic thread title.
Not mocking just helping folks find the right goup of like minded thinkers....intellectual and social networking is good for everyone... creative ferment leads to new inventions, discoveries and innovation. However some here seem to question your math. Do you use linear or regression models?... software you use: SAS, SPSS, JMP,m MathLab??
Good one. Here's my math: 2+2=4 But the irrationally exuberant believe that with a positive attitude 2+2=20 Sorry, wishing doesn't make it so. Maybe we should all WISH really hard?
Wow, 3rd grade math! How come everyone can't see it? Personally I perfer regression models with R2 > 0.925 and JMP or SPSS.
You ask "how come everyone can't see it?" I don't know.... ask the Nobel Laureates at the former LTCM... ask the credit rating agencies... ask the mortgage securitizers and the creators of derivatives. They used fancy models too! How did that work out? And you know what? At the end of the day, they were trying to make 2+2=20. And you know what else? The Federal Reserve and the Treasury and Congress as well are trying to make 2+2=20. if you don't see this ending badly.... well, I wish I lived in your world. They tell me ignorance is bliss - is that true?
Exactly and precisely what kind of models did all those folks use? Far as I know that guys weren't even good algo traders yet less sophisticated CI people. To the unimformed a model is any equation containing a greek. To those comforatbe with only addition and subtraction this must appear sophisticated...it isn't.
Let's get back on track here, because this is getting tiring. Earlier in this thread, you made a sweeping generalization about doomsters. Apparently we all suffer from some sort of neurosis. From what I can tell, your arguments are not about the issue at hand, but are ad hominem in nature: I know algos/models - you don't - me smart - you dumb - you think a disaster is coming - your mother must not have hugged you enough... Really, this is getting tiresome. Instead of attacking me or writing some irrelevant equations to appear intelligent, why don't you explain how this time is no different than any other? And comparing it to Y2K or any other past "scare" is not an option. I never worried about Y2K or the other issues. I don't ascribe to the Mayan 2012 theories either. I never worried about any major event in the 30 some years I have been on this planet. So don't clump me in with some sort of perpetual doomer cult. If that's what you have to do to address your own insecurities - then own up to it.
Your points: 1) I don't know if you personally have a psychological addiction to impending doom/salvation. Both are part of the same syndrome which responds well to CBT therapy and GAD medications. If you keep seeing one of these in the future and when it does not occur you find a different one then seek a qualified mental health professional, otherwise you don't need one. My real point is that with the millions of doomsayers and their thousands of theories on why it is immanent, not one has yet to occur in human history. Things might look tough if there is a panic, bubble, depression or war, but strangely civilization has continued on nicely for the last 10,000 years. A zero percent back test performance is usually a bad trade. 2) If you don't know the kind of math used in the examples you cite, which I guess you don't or you would have given a straight reply, I wouldn't say that you are dumb, just partially informed and have a tendency to make conclusions with partial and fuzzy information and don't know very much about that of which you cite as examples. In many circumstances this tendency limits one's ability to anticipate future events or understand current ones.