I Am In 25% Cash! All Accounts*

Methinks someone feels they are smarter than the market.

Mr. Market will do what Mr. Market wants to do, you my friend only have one thing to worry about - remaining solvent.

 

Algo I wouldn't post if I didn't think I was smarter than the market. In fact that's the sole purpose to stoney being stoney.

Lets me honest take a look at that daily chart.
Look at the 5 day. The weekly. Go back 6 weeks.
What I am " feeling " is being played out in individual stock after individual stock. The indexes themselves are benefiting from a nifty fifty set up. This " panic " to be in railroads and utilities it can in fact go on for a long time. The trade in small cap is nearly toast. Don't like the divergence.

AKAM short down $2 today!

 

The Fed is concerned about inflation and has us focused on the 'core rate' exclusively. At the same time we're told that inflation is contained or benign. But the Fed keeps worrying aloud about inflation. With the core rate at only 2.4% and the Fed's 'comfort zone' supposedly close to 2%, the average person might wonder what the problem is. It might be that the Fed doesn't believe its own data. And, while they have us focused on the core rate, they're watching the 'headline rate.' Just a thought.

In the good old days before Clinton and Rubin, the CPI would be calculated (differently) per John Williams Shadow Government Statistics. So while we focus on the current rate, some still believe in that old rate measure which, if still used, would be around 6%.

D Fry Market Outlook@seekingalpha

>> This is a fun point. I think the fed is watching one price and one price only the price of GAS! As we nudge over $3.50 blind and stupid Americans awake from their comas. I know I did when I had to fill up my old Benz wagon, she hardly ever needs a full tank but i ran her low in Westchester pulled in and out $60 something bucks later!!! That took my lunch money that day no lunch. And I hand washed some shirts that normally would have went to the dry cleaner and stayed home from one movie... get it? Like a slinky these gas prices where they are now constrain our economy-- the consumer is in total pull in now.

Housing is about to head into the cruel second leg down of summer. Banks lending has tightened to the point where not only is it hard to get a mortgage for a single family home but it's tough to get a business loan now too... that takes a couple months to ripple through the economy-- right about where we are now.

And still no spending by corporations. It's simple folks Big business needs to take out the tech checkbook ASAP or we are doomed to a long hot summer of neg returns. MSFT must get that VISTA patch and bug free edition out and corporations must start replacing all their software which leads to hardware which leads to servers which leads to more tech guys running around which leads to more innovation and better products. What happened to THAT America? Folks this is as important time for our WHOLE country as it is the market. Cut jobs, send jobs overseas, move manufacturing, buy back shares, cut costs fire more people... all of this is AGAINST the American way and the opposite of how we got to be the biggest industrialized nation. I don't care if the future is purely biotech, airplanes and electric cars and home made dog food but we simply have to figure out what were good at and do it!~stoney

 

from AP...

And brace yourself: experts say with gas already closing in on $4 a gallon in Chicago and San Francisco ahead of the peak summer driving season, higher prices could be in the cards.

The average U.S. household is already spending $1,000 more per year on gasoline than it did five years ago, two consumer groups say in testimony they planned to present to a House Judiciary Committee task force Wednesday.

That's an increase of 85 percent, and rural households have been hardest hit because they spend about 20 percent more on gas than urban residents, the Consumer Federation of America and Consumers Union said, citing Labor Department figures.

"It is time for Congress and the administration to do their part to help alleviate the pain consumers are feeling at the pump," said Mark Cooper, director of research for the federation. At Wednesday's hearing, he plans to call on the federal government to provide greater oversight over oil industry market practices, create strategic refinery and product reserves, and enact policies that promote reduced oil consumption.

Most Americans are locked into their driving habits and can do little to alter their fuel-buying patterns when prices rise, experts say. For example, the number of workers with commutes lasting longer than 60 minutes grew by almost 50 percent between 1990 and 2000, according to Census Bureau data.

"I drive 55 miles each way to work every day," Sandy Colden, of Medford, N.J., said one recent morning while loading groceries into her Honda Pilot SUV. "So I really don't have a choice, unfortunately."

But that usually means people have to cut back elsewhere, as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is finding, to its distress. The world's largest retailer said Tuesday that earnings in the current quarter will fall short of Wall Street expectations, in part because of higher gas prices.

Weekly gasoline demand in April increased as much as 1.9 percent over the same weeks in 2006, even as the average national price of a gallon of gasoline grew from $2.71 to $2.97 by the end of the month, according to Energy Information Administration data.

Only during the first week of May, when prices jumped to $3.05 a gallon, did demand for gasoline abate slightly -- by about two-hundredths of a percent, EIA figures showed.

Experts disagree over how high prices have to rise before consumers are shocked into driving less -- at least temporarily.

"We might actually see some reaction at $3.50 (a gallon)" nationally, said Larry Compeau, executive officer of the Society for Consumer Psychology and professor of marketing and consumer psychology at Clarkson University in Potsdam, N.Y.

Lars Perner, assistant professor of clinical marketing at the University of Southern California's business school, disagrees, saying the tipping point is more likely $4 a gallon.

Try telling that to Jennifer Hoover, 32, a graphic designer who lives in the San Francisco area. She said she was startled by her bill -- $58.69 to fill up her silver Audi sedan with $4.09 a gallon premium gasoline Tuesday -- but was late for an appointment and had no other choice.

"I was just thinking when I drove up -- 'Why am I stopping here when it's $4.09?'" she said. "But it's on my way and I'm late and I have to do what I have to do."

Eddie Engles, 37, didn't blink twice after he filled up his GMC Yukon at a gas station near downtown Chicago on Tuesday. At $3.71 a gallon, the fill-up cost the clothing distributor $83.89. "That's a new record. Every time I pump up, it's a new record," he said.

Engles, who uses his sport utility vehicle to haul his wares, said he has few options when it comes to cutting down on travel and gas expenses. "I just need it," he said. "What am I going to do? Not fill up?"

There was a definite consumer reaction in September 2005 after Hurricane Katrina outages pushed prices above $3 gasoline for the first time. Demand dropped as much as 6.5 percent. "There was ... something significant psychologically about the $3 barrier," Perner said.

Since then, however, consumers seem to have adapted, with demand rising throughout a brief period of prices above $3 a gallon last summer.

"People complain about higher oil prices ... but they still drive their cars, they still buy their SUVs, they don't want to carpool," said Fadel Gheit, an energy analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

"It's a little inconvenient for me to take the bus," said David Harris, 31, a film school marketing manager in Los Angeles who commutes 40 miles a day for work.

Consumers may suspect that oil refiners are colluding in the recent price spike, but analysts say the real culprit is an unprecedented number of refinery accidents and maintenance outages this spring -- combined with drivers' rising demand for fuel. Most prominent of the outages was a February fire that shut down Valero Energy Corp.'s 170,000 barrel-per-day McKee refinery in Sunray, Texas, for months.

"If you just count incidents, there are more this year than there have been in previous years," said Mike Conner, a specialist on refinery operations at the EIA.

As a result, gasoline inventories fell by more than half, to 93.5 million barrels in the week ended May 4, from 205.1 million barrels in the same week in 2006 and 214.7 million barrels in 2005, according to government figures.

Charles Drevna, executive vice president of the National Petrochemical and Refiners' Association, said many refineries shut down for maintenance for the first time since their operations were kicked into overdrive by Hurricane Katrina. When the 2005 storm knocked out gas and oil facilities along the Gulf Coast, refineries in other parts of the country had to step in and pick up the slack, Drevna said. In many cases, that meant putting off regular maintenance for years.

"There's still a lasting effect from that," Drevna said.

Also, he said, the process of turning crude oil into gasoline has become more complicated over the years, particularly as different governmental entities have mandated changes to the chemical makeup of gasoline for environmental reasons. It takes more equipment, more complicated processes and more oil to make gasoline now than it used to, Drevna said.

Drevna said refiners have been steadily expanding their existing facilities, adding the equivalent of one new refinery a year, on average, every year for more than a decade. That's a cheaper and faster way to expand refinery capacity than going through the multiyear process of trying to win a permit to build new plants, he said.

While higher gas prices haven't done much to cut demand, they also don't appear to have had much effect on consumers' car-buying behavior, according to Autodata Corp. Sales of lights trucks and SUVs declined 3 percent in April, less than the 12 percent slump in car sales. Light trucks and SUVs continue to make up the majority of vehicle sales in the U.S., or about 53 percent.

At a Chevron station in San Francisco that was charging $3.95 for a gallon of regular gasoline, Nathan Sullins, 31, a computer programmer, gloated as he filled up his Toyota Prius hybrid for a fraction of what other drivers were paying.

"High gas prices are a bummer, but you reap what you sow," he said. "If we had started making fuel-efficient cars 10 years ago, we wouldn't be in this situation."

William Hill, of Pittsburgh, said he'd consider downsizing from his minivan to a hybrid sedan if hybrids weren't more expensive.

"They charge you more for a hybrid to compensate for what you would pay for gas," Hill said while gassing his minivan along the Pennsylvania Turnpike one day last week. "So either way, you lose."

 

Microsoft Partner Points to Soft Vista Demand

By The VAR Guy...

Microsoft continues to generate record profits. But the mood about Windows Vista remains mixed at best, especially among hardware and software partners. The VAR Guy was surprised to read a surprisingly honest assessment of the situation from Hauppauge Digital Inc., maker of WinTV technology.

In a statement about quarterly results, Hauppauge CEO Ken Plotkin said, “consumers have been slow to upgrade existing PCs to Windows Vista,” according to Newsday, Long Island’s local paper.

Hmmm. That’s not exactly news to The VAR Guy and the rest of the world. But, it’s rare for a small Microsoft partner to speak so openly and honestly about the situation–especially since Vista is still so new. You can bet Bill Gates has placed Hauppauge Digital on Double Secret Probation for such honesty.

Overall, it’s difficult to say how well Vista is doing. Yes, Microsoft has sold more than 20 million Vista licenses. But how many customers actually requested the operating system? And how many more would send it back to Redmond, if only they knew how? Based on all the negative Vista buzz, Apple is actually suggesting that the Vista party is over before it starts.

In reality, PC vendors are selling boatloads of Vista systems to consumers. But perhaps not as many as expected. How else can you explain Dell’s decision to re-introduce Windows XP on some systems while at the same time launching consumer PCs with Ubuntu Linux preinstalled.

If only the rest of the IT industry could be as honest about the situation as Hauppauge Digital.

>>>> Hummmmmmm. SI

 

Gooood mourning Bears!

Wow talk about joining a grumpy group these guys are worse than the fryers! Sure they see me as a johnny come lately, an interloper but why can't they be more upbeat? Every day the internals of the market fall apart further.
> The Nasdog has flashed three days of higher volume selling within the past six sessions, and just two days of gains, both on lower volume. Do I have to tell you what that leads to? My work suggests we fall hard for 8 or 10 trading days. Has anyone noticed that despite being up every day we haven't gone anywhere? Since the 4th the Dow is up 1.6% while the Russell is down 2.1%. The S&P 500 splits the difference with a 0.4% gain, Geez the month is almost over why all the cheering? It seems like most of the volume is concentrated in a few names... The narrowing of the market internals that has been going on for over a month now is typically followed by a noticeable corrective move in the major averages.

Check out the NYSE 10-day AD line, each high since the initial thrust higher on March 21 has reached a lower peak than the previous. There are now 4 lower peaks, 4/16, 4/25, 5/3, and 5/14. I have contacted master chart readers from all over and not a one can recall seeing a pattern of 4 lower peaks in such a short period of time.

The danger is one sharp break will wipe away months of small scale gains. ~ stoney

 

I don't understand why this story is important.

 

StockT> All IT spending is based around VISTA. If there is no commitment from companies-- than the tech rally gets pushed off.

Yesterdays strength in small caps have given me pause.
If the housing numbers on thursday and friday are not bad enough I will reduce the cash position to 9% next week.

Of the past fourteen sessions, volume in the NYSE has exceeded its 50-day average only two times. While this may not seem like a big deal on the surface, it's interesting to note that the new high territory of both the S&P and Dow has been occurring on lighter than average volume for most of the past three weeks. The S&P 500 rallied above its all-time closing high of 1,527 intraday, but the party was short-lived because the index failed to close above that level, yesterday's feeble attempt caused the S&P to form a bearish "inverted hammer" candlestick pattern on its daily chart. ~ stoney

 

traditional candlesticks dont work on indices, watch them push past the hammer to squeeze all the shorts. Maybe tommorow if we get a consolidation day today.

 

Just thought I'd comment on the Vista thing: alot of big IT depts have not switched, and will not switch for at least a year, perhaps two for us. I work in IT purchasing for a university, and I'd say that most of the money we are seeing being thrown around this year is being spent on replacement machines for various labs, alot on macs this year, alot on upgrades to the broadband and fiber plant...

I wouldn't say we are spending less than previous years. I'd say we are spending more, just not on anything to do with Vista...

my .02