I have been hearing about this advance/decline line for about 2 weeks now, many blogs and others mentioning it yet the market does its own thing. Dow looking to cross 13200 today. Opened up strong and should continue to stay strong.
$/Yen is fueling this and probably short covering in tech land also. Internals are actually pretty good today and better than they have been for a while. My EM short is taking a bit of a drubbing due to decrease in volatility and rally in EEM but the NQ (looks like the YM would have been a better hedge) and HPQ are mitigating losses some what. Going short any US based asset does not look good to me here. Even with the strength in the $ vs the Euro and the sell off in Gold, stocks are doing well and I think partly because money is coming back home from abroad as the US is seen as relatively undervalued.
As an employer I can tell you that 10% of the population is unfit to work. That means at least 1.5% of those actually have a job.
I've been all in, boy did I get beat up last week. I'm even now... finally. Pfft. I guess I should be happy that I didn't lose any money, but that was a terrible week. Glad I didn't sell anything.
Better jump in here Stoney or you will miss the trend upward as we break out to new highs!!! I say we go much higher from here with the correction happening in Q3/Q4. Sept/Oct. The R2K will hit 920 before we see any pullback.
Michael I think this is the usual set up before a decline. First we celebrate the 8% earnings vs a supposed 3% expectation. Second we celebrate the good economic numbers-- Third we point to the " Dow Signal " flashing a buy. Fourth we explain that this year is different that we should not " go away in May " Fifth Kramer is fully back in tech after swearing them off and missing this whole past move. Sixth no one ever sells a railroad stock again because of impending Private Equity buyouts. Seven A Bank that holds mid level mortgages goes under and an investment house holding bonds takes a 700 mln hit. Eight the consumer sees $4 gas over the summer and reels in the spending. Nine. Food inflation is ramping at a 7% annual rate and nothing is being done about it. Ten. Market is significantly lower by mid June. ~ stoney
Well it's been just a week since " The Big Call " by stonedinvesting and all I can say is i feel no need to correct this cash position. Usually I would be pained and tormented and feeling left out- not this time. that's how bad things are now. 1) Slowing earnings growth, 2) Rising interest rates, 3) Higher taxes. 4) Money printing in China 5) Private Equity boil over 6) bad loans 7) Consumer debt 8) falling currency... 9) $3.75 cent gas into driving season 10) Retail investor sucked back in two weeks ago. Corporate earnings growth is actually slowing dramatically. Furthermore, the growth in net earnings is significantly less than the growth in earnings per share. This is because of all the share buybacks going on. Corporations know investors focus on EPS. They also know they can easily boost EPS by buying back shares. When will investors wake up? How can the US dollar keep falling and everything is ok? European investors who repatriate back into their own currency are looking at a period between 2000 and 2006 when we have been cheering like crazy that our market is going up yet somehow they are DOWN over 30%!! Planning on taking a trip folks? Better make it South America. Our country is quickly becoming a world joke. All this talk of America not powering the world anymore is pissing me off. I'll tell you ONE THING FOLKS-- we may not actually produce anything and we may indeed be a nation of big headed computer wonks but the American Consumer still powers the WORLD. And when they pull in this summer all these golden lands of investment promise China, brazil, etc- they are going down the toilet. ~ stoney
Stoned, you summed up my feelings perfectly. I know the markets and world better in the US than elsewhere and so I feel like I can outpace the decline of the dollar in the next 2 years or so and walk away with a few million to do something other than this. I've been looking at moving to Latin America or Spain...the money isn't a big deal as of now and quality of life difference is enough to leave at this point...Latin America probably has some of the best value/quality living anywhere and for the most part, in the right countries, is extremely stable. I was also considering Bora Bora!