I Am In 25% Cash! All Accounts*

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, Apr 30, 2007.

  1. An unusual move for the stonedinvestor.

    Granted sometimes I don't take the good times well... it's a fault... but I really don't like turning on the television and seeing one fat faced republican after another grinning with meat juice on their chin rah rahing the market,.

    The overwhelming sentiment last week was 100% bullish. !00% Overseas. I look for both sentiments to crack this week.

    The Dow closed higher for the 19th time in 21 trading days. Going back to the Dow's inception in 1897, this has never happened before. While "they" saved the Dow from closing down on the day, the last 90 minutes of trading were weak on Friday. That makes two days in a row that we have seen noticeable weakness in the last 90 minutes of trading, something we have not seen in some time. In light of the extended nature of this trend, this is likely a precursor to a more serious change of trend. Once it cracks, there is potential for very quick profit taking to bring prices in. Generally speaking, strong runs of this nature tend to be followed by a corrective period of two to eight weeks. As is common with corrections / consolidations, some were relatively flat while others displayed a more visible pullback. It was rare for an ominous looking pattern to develop before turning higher. However, the next push higher proved to be significantly important in 1929 and 1968 when major highs were reached. The S&P 500 remains shy of 1500. Interestingly, the S&P has traced out another very minor head and shoulders pattern.If history remains consistent then the SPX will reach 1500 on Monday. After a two day consolidation, the S&P should be primed to pop higher. Of course this is all dependent upon the S&P holding above 1490, which was bent but not broken on Friday. When the dust settles this week we should have seen enough to confirm at least a minor high was reached last week... Seeing the weekly trends turn down will convey a more serious message. And I believe that message WILL be sent by the market t o it's complacent participants. ~ stoney
  2. S2007S


    it has to higher, every talking head on cnbc says it is, im expecting dow 14k by July. :p :p
  3. I'm 40% cash.

    (In reality, I am 40% real estate, directly, too - residential lots, commercial properties)

    I'm less than 20% equities, and may pare that back even more.

    How's that for underweight?

    Every economic indicator is weak. The last holdout is employment (if the government can be believed, even though the real rate of unemployment is probably closer to 8.5%).

    Once employment begins to weaken, that will be the defining moment.
  4. When economic indicators are weak is when it is time 2 buy

    Remember 1998-2000 when every news was positive?

    Yea that didn't end so well

    Uncertainty is what moves the market higher gradually.
  5. I'm shuffling stuff around so i'm able to buy some bios today. An addict? perhaps. Folks I'm buying NYMX again I know I was a little premature in my thread on this name. I also bought VNDA maintained cash position give or take $6k.
  6. And away we go:
    The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) is +0.92 (+7.4%) at 13.38 and the VXN (CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index) is +1.38 (+8.9%) at 16.84.....
  7. That was a bad day folks! And there is apt to be more tomorrow. Stocks are starting to get the beat down the crooked numbers are on the sell side now. Extreme Caution Is warranted* ~ stoney
  8. Annother BAD tape don't believe the tape!

    NOT a good day technically on Nasdaq, despite the positive gains in the indices. Adv/dec now 1414 to 1600,up/down volume 980 mill to 1.1 bill....

  9. It's funny how they focus on the beats and minimize the misses, and yes the advance/decline line is not so pretty.
  10. The A/D line has been something that keeps me somewhat bearish for a while....we almost always start with a large amount of decliners that slowly shift to advancing....endless money raining down I guess?!

    At some point the leverage dries up and the markets will stall. There will always be bullish stocks in bearish markets and bearish stocks in bullish markets...what's amazing is the way a few stocks or a silly overpriced consolidation bid can swing a whole market to elation lately. It's just too silly to take part in. I'm waiting for the black swan to show itself.

    AMZN at $60+ due to some interesting financials and homebuilders(many of them anyway) trading within 20% of their recent highs is something that really makes me wonder just how much acid there is in the kool-aid. :D
    #10     May 2, 2007