I am getting my butt handed to me on a daily basis!

Thank you so much for your response.

In my preparations to add a forth element, SHARE, to the above paradigm, and “pass it forward”, I have a request. I apologize for the repeated request, this will be the last time I ask. If possible, would you please consider sharing the often mentioned “Dr. Hu” document? Please let me know if there is anything I can do to make the sharing of this document easier for you.

Thank you again for the detailed, substantive posts above.

-river

 

Jack,

I just wanted to make a post to express my gratitude for everything you've done as well, and all the patience and persistence you've shown along the way.

I deeply appreciate all of the time and effort you've taken to teach me the market system of operation. Your efforts will not go to waste; I will make sure they benefit many people.

The writings on the DOM are very helpful as well. I will continue to do the work and add this to my tool set.

Thank you, Jack.

 

Before you get carried away with dreams of saving the world, why not make yourself a couple of bucks first. Once you've done that, you might have a different perspective on how much success is attributable to the man and how much to a particular method.

 

Welcome back.

I’m glad to see you haven’t lost your ability to compose a mildly irreverent comment containing keen insight. There’s been a dearth of those lately on ET.

Did your self-imposed exile from message boards lead to any revelations you could share with the rest of us who, for one reason or another, cannot seem to stay away from here that long?

-river

 

Nope, nothing revelatory. I picked up chess again after 25 years away from the game and played online at a few sites. My blitz rating got above 2300 on Chess.com and I scalped a GM and a few IMs along the way. Too much cheating going on, though. In the fall I played in a live tournament at a local chess club - 7 rounds, one round per week; game/2 hours, d/5. After a shaky start I managed to tie for first and won $350. I had to knock off two 10-year-olds and a 13-year-old in the final round to do it. They are all in the top 50 for their age group. It definitely was not like taking candy away from a baby. Extracting from the market is a hell of a lot easier.

Regarding the difficulty of staying away from message boards, it's an occupational hazard. But it's really not that bad. I don't take seriously anything that goes on and can come and go as I please. It's not addictive like chess, for example.

Thanks for the interest.

 

I am sorry about your experience. Hang in there, you may want to try a good mechanical system.
I have had some good results with that. Whatever you do do not get discouraged. A good trade might be just a click away.
Cheers.

 

Jack Hershey, on the off chance you did not see it, I replied to your latest post in this thread shortly before ET experienced its recent growing pains and the accompanying search related issues.

You have mentioned many times over the years of your hope that those of us who have benefited from your extensive posting on ET will pay it forward by teaching the methodology to someone who could also benefit. As I prepare to pass it forward in a formal way, I am searching for a resource to help me help the learning trader to build a wall around certain past experiences. Dealing with some of my previous beliefs, practices, and experiences was the most difficult part of the transition for me, by far, in going from an edge type probabilistic based mentality to a mentality of determining what the market is currently telling me, through price and volume, in the ever evolving moment of now.

As you have described it previously in ET, the document named after your cancer surgeon explains the process of how the mind becomes differentiated in a setting of coherence. I thought that this document might be a valuable resource to aid transference. For whatever reason, you have chosen not to make this document available to those of us who interact with you solely on ET (This is not a negative comment, just an observation).

You have mentored many learning traders over the years. In lieu of this document, do you have other resources or best practices you could recommend to aid the transference process in general and, more specifically, any recommendations for the mentoring trader to help the learning trader build, as you have described in the past, Fort Ticonderoga, if necessary?

One final question out of left field. What do you think would be an appropriate investment, more sophisticated than bonds, for a city looking to raise money for street repair?

-river

 

I'll do the other part very soon.

Tucson has a street repair problem.

Fro relaxation, I can chat a little about local governamce's ability to deal with local opportunities.

We have a new major who formerly worked in Tcuson as a professional. He decided to "give something back". So not Tucson is the victim of his largese.

We have about a million folks here and they work at local companies or are retired


We also have Councils and Departments and a city manager and a Mayor.

So our streets have fallen into disrepair as a consequence. The rough price tage spoken of is about 1 billion to fix the streets

Our small group od deliberators set up by the powers that be recently decided to get the "squeaky wheels" taken care of.

We did to 400 million is bonds to fix the streets. Residential streets were not a high priority. But residents make noises. My neighborhood is a red box area since we signed form letters to get our streets fixed. WE squeaked the loudest apparently.

So 6 million was pealed off to deal with local neighborhood streets


And the local TV news came to our neighborhood to inverview the form letter collector. Her husband also tripped in a pot hole .

Ad the TV crew was packing up, came along wlaking and taking data on lninear mile pothole rate of occurances (6 per day per mile). I have a curb piling method to prevent double counting.


I was motioned to the reporter's presence.

Could I answer some questions???

I had prepared a city wide no cost solution and given it to the form letter collector a year prior (and could not get an meeting with our local neighborhood board (the solution I worte was thought to be humor).

Now a reporter wanted toply me with questions.

I was wearing a Calvin Klein wseat shirt and dsigner jeans.

He asked if the new residentila repair stories had cought my attention. I chuckled.
He asked why.

I said the 870mundred million dollare problem was being attacked with 6 million over two years. I said "do the math".

What math?

I replieldd: Sub tract 6 from 870 and see the small 864 still lefts to do after two yers pass.

"Oh" I heard. "don't you think muni's work/"

I said "yes they are good for digging holes but we need the holes in streets fixed instead."

I added that muni's have to be paid back along with interest.

He puzzled away and said "you think there is a finacial problem in Tucson???"

A said yes.

And then he asked what you asked.

LOL.

He said the TV needed to do an educational programm to get the public to understand what was really going on.

Econometrically fixing the roads in Tucson has a multipier of about 6. That is, putting a billion into road work circulates 6 billion through our local community.

The small bridge I designed to do this was 200 miliion a year for 5 years.

to earn 200 million at a hedge fund the fund needs 1 billion dollars.

Pick a hedge fund that wants 1 billion dollars.

Now the reader has to pay a little attention.

The key is to guarrantee the performance of the HF.

This is done with a form letter. Tucson has people who are skilled in getting signatures of form letters. "Stand Up Tucson" is the name of a person who has signed.

Back to the key issue. The HHF has to perform. And the performance has to be guaranteed.

So picking a HF that does not fail is a place to start.

I chose GS.

the leter says:

Dear GS

!, ________. guarantee your performance to use capital; to make proifts for the next five years. If you lose, I will pay to coer the loss. My committment to guaranttee is _______ dolars.

sincerely,

_____________

My net worth is _______________

So now we look at 1 million people and their employers doing 1 billion dollars of guaranteeing.

We use the Russian peasant method for multiplication. One factor is doubled and the other is halved. repatedly until an answer may be found

Below are some steps


1. 1 million x 1,000

2. 500K x 2, 000

3. 100k x 5,000 Fewer people more guarnatee'd. Somme people in private neighbor hoods spend 5,000 a year now. Money lost.

Throw in some big businesses here.

4, air force "bone yard" old aripplanes from many wars. 1 million guarantee.

we need 1,000 such guarantors.

IBM, IBM equivs, Motorola, VA hospital 87 buildings,

10 million each we need 100 of these.

400 million unspend bond issue . We have 1 of these


By getting 400 mllion unspent

then US gov't business 100 million more in guarantees

the busineses 200 million more

we need people and small businesses to cover 300 million in guaranttees

5 K shots by 30,000 people

10K shots by 10,000 people.



Now , we have 200 million per year for 5 years.

Cut all the above in half and spend 10 years fixing the streets.

At the end of gettin the 1 billions, the pieces of paper are returned to the proffers.

The risk analysis:

GS doesn't fuck up and never has. So add 20% overage to be safe.


So with a 1 billion dollars od performance guarantee's what doas GS do? They raise the capital to make more than 20% a year and split to excess profite with inversotrs and GS.

So now we see money hitting tucson. How does the 6X economitric effect change the size of the street problem. Only by how much of the 6X is put into taxable contexts.

How can this added capital circulation be maxed out?? B local incentives to do stuff that contributes to the tax base.

It there a chance that Tucson can have "Stand UP Tucson"? Power to the people will begin it on any scale. If you want your streets fixed, sign a guarantee. If you want your empoyees streets fixed sign a guaranttee. People wh do not want their streets fixed can buy the municipal bonds and watch the bond rating of tucson die.

 

Thanks for your humorous recollection of the interview. Somehow I knew there would be more to the story than just that one line description provided by the reporter.

Very interesting solution. I have never heard of that type of arrangement in the public sector. At the risk of showing my financing naivete, how common is this arrangement in the private sector?

This solution could be more appealing for several reasons, in my opinion, from a donor perspective, than making a one time cash donation. Any idea how low the amount of total principal guaranteed could be set that would still attract attention from entities that could reasonably be expected to reach the performance goals?

Looking forward to reading your reply.

-river

 

Back to the topic, please could you post a recent chart.

Thanks