In any case, I would NOT try to get it all back on this one trade (i.e. hold and hope or add to your risk). In the bigger picture, you probably need to take a serious hit here to help you avoid making the same mistake in the fuuture. Manage the loss - if that means taking half now, that's not a bad start, but I would not add any more risk to this trade. Best of luck to you.
Oh c'mon saxon... how long have you been doing this now? Four - five years at least? Averaging against aka Martingale fighting the market is the epitome` of trading to you. How does this time differ from all those other times where burning thru a pack of cigarettes and all your fingernails chewed was the emotional angst of riding out similar big unrealized losses that turned to small realized gains? What will you tell your wife when the inevitable day comes where you have on 32 cars in similar fashion, and the ES goes flash-parabolic or flash-crash and wipes out your entire account? And possibly leaves you on margin-call debt, too. You and I both know that is a very real possibility every time you average down the full boat against a directional market push. Statistically speaking, it is only a matter of time before you witness your account vaporized in one single x-sigma event. We've had this conversation numerous times before. You well know better by now. We all have our choices to make ahead of time before the trades are ever opened live. How we choose to manage our risk - reward is a very personal choice... with often painful and sometimes fiscally fatal results. Apart from that unemotional reality in the trenches , I wish you well as always, my friend
Well then what's he complaining about? Heat? I meant if his plan to take profits at 1200 is actually "Plan B", he should revert to "Plan A" and get out, even if it means taking a larger than he intended loss. And stick that "Uhh" where the sun don't shine. If you can't find that location, just look for the place where your head is currently residing.
Guys, thank you all for the advice, warm words and genuine concern. Only those who have placed bets can fully understand the pain, anxiety and general discomfort mother market can inflict. Like I said I got cought with my pants down. Stupid move that probably will cost me some money in the end. I wanted to end the year with a nice bang. It was an emotional trade, not based on a system I generally work with. I am sure that come January, once the Q is over, the market will take a breather and 1200 will be back in play. However, since I am going on vacation, I will not be able to hold it after Dec 15 max. Dec 17. I can take a weekend of biting my nails, but pushing the pain while on Christmas getaway would be counter productive. I guess it is going to be entertaining to see where this particular trade will take me.
You nailed it with "emotional trade." Anytime one pulls the trigger with emotions at the helm, nothing good usually happens. Losing $$$$ in the markets is "tuition" towards taming emotions, and knowing when to get out and NEVER looking back to see "what could have happened had I stayed in the trade..." Last, saxon I would suggest changing your dom to % rather than $'s. Seeing a dollar amount move either way is yes, another way to stir up emotions and make a mistake. Hang in there bro!
"I doubt Buffett built the majority of his fortune by betting spreads." True, but he didn't do it trading either - at least in the sense that you and I do it (unless you are a big investment banker or OTC securities attorney). He bought companies through private negotiations and did alot of very advantageous private offering deals - most of it through direct dealings with the company or in the OTC space.
Trading should not be entertaining. Why not just get out and wait for a beter trade? My gut is almost always right, when it tells me to get out I get the hell out. I have been doing this a long time and I know really the only way one can learn how to do this for the long hall is to take losses reguraly, anytime a short term trade turns into a long term invesment I get crushed. In 2003 I got plenty of religion from the market, had 4 days that year where I lost over 25,000. That was the single best trading education I ever recieved, I think you might have to learn the hard way as well. Ben Bernanke is talking on 60 minutes and is going to say that the fed will do at least 600 bil qe if not more. This has all the ingredients for a massive gap open on Monday. Good luck to you I think you are going to need it, and remember the best way to learn how to trade is from your losses not your wins.
I agree. If your trading method is built to suit your personality, it should include consideration of timeframe and how frequently you want to trade. My own method trades with exactly the level of frequency which suits me and enables me to take losses more easily because I know with a pretty high level of confidence how long it will be before the next set-up comes along. Thus, I have no reason to linger in a trade, hoping it will turn my way.
if you wanted to end the year with a big bang, you should have followed my advice to buy a week ago. You would have made like 50 ES points times 30 cars is 75k$!!!:eek: It is yet not to late to buy the dip now. The market will run to 1270, you can still make around 40-50 ES points.
Hold on now, you said that fund managers and the like do not make directional bets. Well, wouldn't buying a company outright be an example of the ultimate directional bet? BTW, have you ever bothered to look at a Berkshire Hathaway 13-F? BH Financial buys and sells quite a bit of stock, another directional bet, too.