I think it's a risky trade. ES has closed at year high, by doing so it ignored negative NFP & yet again higher unemployment figure. Believe it or not but markets are pricing in inflation, if it was deflation then they would be down already. Good luck.
SPX 50day moving average support sits around 1,175 4 bar run up from 1,175 to 1,225 Breakout could occur above 1,227 If no breakout, then 50% retracement puts it back around 1,200 Say your Fibonacci prayers, and best of luck!
been there and I feel your pain. Im curious why you shorted at 1211?Since we hit 1204 Ive been nothing but a buyer.Honestly I think it can run to 1240 before consolidation. blackguard
We all get those one of the kind trade and this was it. I started December normally and banked 3K and then I got stupid. End of the Q, end of the year, last big one before the Christmas holidays. This trade so far will surely be ranked as "the most stupid one of 2010".
Sorry to hear that dude. I think there is a 60 Minutes interview with Bernanke this Sun where he is going to hint at more QE. It may have been the reason the market did a hi-ho into the close Fri. But, ya know, it's not the news, it's the reaction to the news that matters...
"Yes, still at it. Maybe one day you'll tell me how the big boys like you play the game" The big boys are short NQ and long ES on a weighted relative value basis. For size. Taking flat price directional risk is a sucker bet.
The perception here on ET about how things really get done on a fund or IB desk or an institutional level (mutual funds) is amazing. Completely naive. And really seperated from reality. In fact, delusional. Again, Jack Schwaeger has ruined the world and bankrupted many with his tales of market timing and directional risk. I have traded for a commercial. I have traded for a HF. I still trade my own account and a couple prop private equity accounts. My TT Pro platform splits up my orders between 3 account numbers. My minimum order size default setting is 30 lots. An IB, for example, doesn't take a newly minted Harvard MBA and let him scalp 2000 lots in the ES based upon tic data and divergence between a 3 period ROC and a 5 period MACD. Oh, hell no. Yeah, GS just sold 5,000 CL futures in a block trade on ClearPort, but is was because they are long a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Citadel just 1000 2 Yr. Note Futures? Guess what, they bought 1,300 Plain Vanilla 2 Yr. Swaps from CALPERs. Oh my Gosh, Centaurus just sold 200 HHNG Swaps on ICE? Well, you don't know that the guy got hit on a bid for 125 July PJM-W Electricity Swaps. Please be assured that what you think you saw and what is reality is something for you to reconcile. ALL OF THESE BIG BOYS CAPTURE SPREAD DIFFERENTIALS FOR SIZE. NOBODY TAKES DIRECTIONAL RISK FOR SIZE. NO FUND OR BANK OR PRIVATE EQUITY FIRM ALLOWS DIRECTIONAL RISK.
"Really? So why are we bailing out the banks in that case?" Maybe a point for you to make in the Economics section. I don't trade Mortgage Backed Swaps.
If you are following your plan, then you are fine. If you don't have a plan, develop one. 1) Risk management, do you have a mental stop, hard stop, time based stop. 2) Do you plan to hold overnight and run the risk of a report affecting your TA. 3) Can the market tell you if you are wrong, or can you not understand what the market tells you. 4) If you speculate on a report, and it does not turn out how you expected, do you start to close down your trade. Its possible the market will stay at current price, go up, or go down before the contract expires. Anyone that knows for sure, is already rich.