I think gold will be the next "black swan event" in that the perceived "value" will drop like the provervial rock....down to a price that will shock most....below $150/200 oz. The bullion shops will simple disappear overnight...no buyers as they don't need the product....fringe investment.... Will be treated like art. antiques or other collectibiles.... When middle easterners are daytrading with IB gold has lost it's allure.... It is not a store of value and can't be used for currency.... This is the 21st century.....gold was for another time.... SteveD
Ever seen a historical chart of USD value since FED inception? We might see gold as low as 400-500$, but there's no way it stays there unless we undergo a Depression-like event. Our entire banking system is built around the devaluation of currency, which explains why gold holds its value.
I'll venture to guess that the dollar is devalued by another 25% within a 18 months as compared to gold, which to me is the standard of value for money, since there is no currency left on earth that has held its value over time that I'm aware of. Its amazing how easily those people you'd think were sharp enough to see the con game have been fooled. I don't ever recall hearing about any other FIAT world reserve currency that lasted an entire generation. That has allowed the debt bubble to become absolutely immense, and its just a question of how long before its value is questioned by the rest of the world. I can't imagine that we get away with borrowing trillions more from the rest of the world every year forever. Someone tell me what's going to keep this consumer driven, consumption economy going after the bailouts end?
It's my hope that once again, America comes up with technology that makes the world beat yet another path to our "door". Some smart nerds at Rice University in Houston have come up with a 'bucky ball" type of transmission line for electricity... WWW. Aerotecture.com has come up with some way neato alternatives to turbine wind power generators...and another R&D team at some college in Boston have come up with a solar cell with greater efficiency, and is in the form of Saran-Wrap....so out there somewhere, people are working every day to make our lives better, easier, and cheaper. Don't count out American technological advancements.
Wealth redistribution. NObama will take money from the wealthy and distribute it to the non-wealthy... who will spend it. The economy will have the "look of growth", but it will really be consuming our seed corn.
Hate to dash your hopes, but there is no way. Sure, America will continue to be on the edge of innovation. But innovation is not where the money is... it's in manufacturing. And there is very little which cannot be manufactured in Asia at much lower labor cost. A significant chunk of the American middle class has been given away to outsourcing. It's not coming back. The "cheap-labor genie" cannot be put back into the bottle. America will not regain economic vigor anytime soon.... likely not in your lifetime. America would be fortunate if all we suffered was the equivalent of the economic malaise in Japan from 1989 to 20__?
Steve, I'm not sure that you quite understand monetary history. As I wrote in a previous post, gold has been money for many more centuries than the "US Dollar". The (USA) monetary base has experienced exponential growth in recent months. The US government's debt has been growing gradually, and recently went over 10 trillion "US Dollars", excluding unfunded SS / Medicare payments. Thus the main reason for holding gold is to protect oneself against the devaluation of fiat currency / currencies.
Sure, it can be redistributed, but as I see it, then we'll ALL be poor, and the country's debt will be absolutely hideous. Its getting there quick. I read the bailouts are over $7 trillion dollars now.