Hyperinflation is no where on the radar. Second, the dollar gets weaker, stocks, gold, oil will rally even higher. Im all oil, its my industry and I'm looking to take half off the tabel again....then re-enter if it pulls back. The same game ive been playing all year. Im up 40% for the year, 9.7% for the month ...as I got in a little late, after taking profits the last time it hit 70.... got in around 69 this time around. Bottom line, Wall Street is about to get FAT BOUNUS'S, Traders are doing pretty well from what I understand. We are on track to make a record quarter and year with our Private Equity Firm. Even main street is seeing gains in their 401ks. So, now its up to MainStreet to either roll their 401ks into something that protects against downward moves, or stay long in their equities.....and pay the price in the end. Nevertheless......Money is being made hand over fist. There is a saying I was told when I got to Texas. MAKE HAY WHILE THE SUN IS SHINNING. If your not making hay right now, you are in the wrong industry at this point and time. This does not mean the BULL has return...nor am I bullish on Equities or the US economy. Who cares....Make Money...that's the only thing that will save you from the "Flood" in the future...
History is being made right here. Might need to recalculate those support levels for the ailing dollar. Grim.
Exactly right. There's a house across the street from me that has been vacant for 2 years. There have been a slew of offers on it at market prices and they all get rejected. Why would the banks be in any hurry to unload properties at reduced prices when they can mark those assets to market at whatever price they want and they get to play with Fed money at zero percent while they are waiting for the actual price to catch up to the price marked on their books? What a crooked f'd up system. There is a massive transfer of weath funneling straight into the banking system.
Exactly. http://scriabinop23.blogspot.com/2009/05/japan-vs-us-on-quant-easing.html I know next to nothing about Zimbabwe, but I'd be willing to bet all the below are true: 1- credit created money did not make up as large a portion of their money supply shortly before their hyperinf. money printing episode vs US/Japan. 2 - Zimbabwe's problems stemmed from a massive outflux of productive capital and factors of production leaving the country. The US or Japan even post-bust is no comparison to Zimbabwe. We may have underutilization, but we have capable factors of production with cutting edge technology continuing to drive down prices of goods produced (including food). 3 -from what I've casually read, political policy driving out capable producers/labor in Zimbabwe actually resulted in production functions that were less efficient, with lower levels of technology and lower economies of scale. ie domestic management ill-suited to run the show versus the 'colonial powers' that used to be. Maybe someone can post a paper about Zimbabwe here. US won't be Zimbabwe. It is re(de)valuing as we speak, but that will likely be an adjustment of minor proportions in comparison. We should instead worry when the next generation turns to be something out of idiocracy due to lack of education focus in the country. When there's no-one left to advance or even maintain our technological progress, that's the time hyperinflation will happen.
EUR/$ not even above 1.55 is hardly hyperinflation. Where's the money velocity? Gold is simply an alternative to fiat currencies, not a new monetary standard. That ship sank long ago. As long as currency movements are ORDERLY, nobody in charge gives a shit. A slow decline in the USD would relieve some downward pressure on american wages, as I've posted before. But as for real estate, this much is for sure - a high end broker told me that one of the 'in trouble' regional banks came to their office to work with them on bank owned properties. They told them that they have no interest in 'giving' the properties away and wont' be entertaining any lowball offers. 25% discount to loan value - forget it. Maybe 5-10% if the property is a dog. Otherwise, they'll sit on it. Of course they will. Their cost of carry is about zero. And with their inventory slowly released into the marketplace, I would expect a upwards cap on prices for years to come. A decade of zero appreciation in residential real estate. And foreclosures coming through the pipeline in force in a few months. Free market my ass. Is everything price fixed now?
out of greenspan's book p.339: 'To peasants tilling th soil of others, redistribution of land is a cherished goal. Populist leaders never address the potential downside, which can be devastating. Mugabe, pres of Zimbabwe since 1987, promised and delivered to his followers the confiscated land of white settlers. But the new owners were not prepared for management of the land. Food production collapsed, necessitating large scale importation. Taxable income fell sharply, requiring Mugabe to resort to printing money to finance his government. Hyperinflation at this writing, is unraveling Zimbabwe's social compact. One of Africa's historically most successful econonomies is being destroyed."
So it can't happen here because we still have our advanced technology and advanced managerial skills. What about the case of Germany in the 1920s - it was one of the most technologically and managerially advanced societies in the world at the time, and it still happened there...
<img src = "http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/BASE_Max_630_378.png"> <img src = "http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/CURRCIR_Max_630_378.png"> <img src = "http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/MULT_Max_630_378.png"> Yep, everything is wonderful bulls..........