Really....who knows what Rogers has his name on.....? Nobody knows..... In the post $70 Trillion world....which lost 30......how is 40 going to apply to higher prices....When/ how is the 30 being made up ? 70/70 even 40/70 now Prices where.....who added the 30 ? ........................................................... Soundbytes sell books....tapes....speeches....
Sugar rose 2000% during the seventies. Gold rose +2000% during the seventies. Silver rose +2000% during the seventies. oil rose 1000% during the seventies. Also several other commodities rose multiple 100%'s but I guess as you point out each has his own definition of (hyper)inflation. If oil rises 1000% and my house drops 70% in value do we have inflation or deflation? As to why he 'singles' out the US.... Well, we live in an world basically ruled by the USA. If the emperor apears to have no clothes I guess it's not suprising the focus is on the US instead of talking about say the dire state of public finances in Ireland. Wall Street. Masters of the Universe.
If Gold rises 5000% and prices for meat/rent/healthcare/insurance/hairdresser/cleaning lady/phone bill stay the same, is that hyperinflation? What if Diamond prices go up 5000000%? Is that also hyperinflation? What about sesame seeds? What if they go up 100000000%? Hyperinflation? The CRB commodity spot index dropped from ~300 in 1980 to ~200 in 2000. So that period was a period of deflation and falling prices? I simply can't wait for hyperinflation -- one that has to be 10x worse than anything the US will ever experience -- in Switzerland, Hungary, Latvia, Ireland, Spain, Italy or Japan. After all they're doing the same (or much worse ) bank bailouts, quantitative easing and fiddling with the economy than the United States. I bet the Japanese CPI is also manipulated (like Faber claims the US' is). Maybe Japan already entered hyperinflation and we're all blinded by fake statistics?
Rogers has made his fortune and clearly enjoys the limelight. He has been singing this tune for the last 10 years. The way things are shaping up, this may turn out to be his time to make that second fortune.
I keep listening to these hyper inflationists hoping they will say something that makes me think and possibly makes me revise my opinion. However, when Faber says that inflation is already taking hold in the US, he loses credibility and sounds like some academic who lives on the other side of the world. I can list only two things that I pay more for now than I did at the start of the year. Gas and medical insurance. The first's price rise has been universal, the second may just be down to some idiot letting my policy lapse. The prices of everything else are still falling. Houses, cars, food, electrical goods, clothes -everything is heavily discounted from last year. Where is this price inflation? If he cannot accurately describe the current conditions in the US economy, then what chance has he got of making accurate predictions?
Well, it's an interesting question that's for sure. The housing boom all over the world was generally perceived as 'a bull market' in housing while the 'bull market' in precious metals during the seventies has gone down in history as a mostly inflationary currency problem. The oil spike of this decade has been subscribed in general to high or unsustainable global demand. Was that really the case or was it simply moneyprinting responsible for 150$ barrel of oil? Who knows. In the video from the opening post Faber states insurance costs have gone up 9% year to date yet these numbers don't show up in official statistics hence the claimed manipulation in government statistics. Faber has emphasised the flaws in all paper currencies across the globe many times (he was even bullish on the $ in 08 and 09) as he has also stated more then often most governments lie and you shouldnt believe most of what they say. Anyway, cutting to the chase I guess if you were to ask Faber in private (as he has done in public) he would probably admit to believing the US has been hijjacked by the Fed and their financial oligarch buddies who are well on their way to officially install fascism in the US with all consequences that come with that. He was of the opinion the global financial system should have been declared bankrupt with governments guaranteeing deposits as it was basically a derivative issue and mom and pop don't own any of those. Perhaps those beliefs clouden his view about the US a bit but I believe he is as much into economics as into (historical) geo-politics so it's inevitable for these two to get mixed up in his analysis. I read Hugh Hendry's latest newsletter in which he asked the question 'What if Bernanke is right?' and brings solid arguments to the table as do other 'deflation' believers. Myself I am not smart nor succesfull enough in the stockmarket to disregard any of the possible outcomes of the crisis we are in today predicted by both the inflationists or the deflationists. I try to keep an open mind and look past the soundbites to find out why people say certain things and hope to have the mental flexibility to change my investment strategy should all empirical evidence expose the flaws in those same beliefs. lol
There is some deflation now. Milton Friedman said inflation is and always will be a monetary event. I think we will find out these next few years as the Treasury sinks deeper into bankruptcy.
Just because someone has a right to the podium....does not mean they get to slide away from the actuals.... And if any reason is given in lieu of the actuals.... Then one knows.... what one needs to know....