hurricane Premium.....easy question

Discussion in 'Energy Futures' started by J-Law, Sep 12, 2008.

  1. J-Law

    J-Law

    obviously a weather premium is being priced into NYMEX crude due to Ike heading toward Houston.

    Anyone aware of why Feb 09 is up 3x as much compared with
    all other months near to front/spot ???

    LIGHT CRUDE OIL Oct '08 11:26:07 101.67
    0.80 101.15 102.89 100.87
    CL X8 [30] LIGHT CRUDE OIL Nov '08 11:26:05 101.66
    0.73 101.20 102.89 100.98
    CL Z8 [30] LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '08 11:26:04 101.94
    0.69 101.67 103.17 101.29
    CL F9 [30] LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jan '09 11:18:13 101.98
    0.40 101.30 103.48 101.30
    CL G9 [30] LIGHT CRUDE OIL Feb '09 10:33:00 103.45
    1.51 101.62 103.51 101.62

    CL H9 [30] LIGHT CRUDE OIL Mar '09 11:24:50 102.86
    0.56 102.88 103.78 102.43
    CL J9 [30] LIGHT CRUDE OIL Apr '09 14:46:51 102.99
    0.36 102.99 102.99 102.99
     
  2. :confused:

    the price of CL has gone down and price at the pump,has gone UP from a $3.54/gallon to $3.74 to 3.79 a gallon in 2 days....WTF?...IKE? so....
     
  3. ?......Feb-09 is a "stale" quote compared to the time-stamp on the front months.
     
  4. J-Law

    J-Law

    Thanks...common sense answer

    best,

    J-Law
     
  5. katesdp

    katesdp

    I dont Like Ike
     
  6. I don't know why anyone would be claiming that there is a weather "premium" in the crude oil market . . .

    The fact of the matter is that simple economics are controlling the situation. Refineries all up and down the Texas gulf coast are being closed down. That cuts down on the DEMAND for crude.

    Hence, crude has been "weak" while the products like gasoline have been super strong!
     
  7. J-Law

    J-Law

    Term "Weather prem" used in terms of short -term effect of hurrican Ike.
    As opposed to weather prem term consistently used with ag's like a drought or otherwise.
     
  8. J-Law

    J-Law

    Question was asked after seeing intraday quote of crude and headline saying price was running up.

    Whatever the case Naz answered question.....FEB 09 was a stale quote.

    Thanks again Nazz
     
  9. Yes, and the short-term effect of refineries being off-line due to the "weather" on CRUDE is WEAKNESS.
     
  10. Exactly.
     
    #10     Sep 15, 2008