To my surprise the RUT settled under 500. The RUT settlement price was 481.06 IWM settled at 47.76 My TZA positions expired worthless, I did close 1 TZA position for $4 and the 3 remaining positions for $4.50 each. Not much but better than nothing. Here is the list of closed positions in May: CLOSED POSITIONS short may 39 iwm put @ profit of $16.13 short may 51 iwm put @ profit of $33.07 bot may 440/450 call/short may 38 iwm call@ loss of ($23.78) bot may 440/450 call/short may 38 iwm call@ loss of ($38.78) bot may 440/450 call/short may 37 iwm call@ loss of ($34.06) bot may 510/500 put/short may 50 iwm put@ profit of $552.46 bot may 530/520 put/short 52 may iwm put@ profit of $91.25 short 52 may iwm put@ loss of ($198) bot may 25/22.50 tza put spread @ loss of ($118) bot may 25/22.50 tza put spread @ loss of ($67.5) bot may 25/22.50 tza put spread @ loss of ($62.5) bot may 25/22.50 tza put spread @ loss of ($57.5) short junQ 38 iwm put@ profit of $103.16 short junQ 49 iwm put @ profit of $204.23 short junQ 49 iwm put @ profit of $281.55 Total profit for May cycle = $681.73 So far we have the following returns: Jan cycle = $683.17 Feb cycle = $2051.06 Mar cycle = $796.14 Apr cycle = $389.58 May cycle = $681.73 Total gain = $4601.68 Percent return = 4601.68/30000 = 15.33% Goal = 30-15.33= 14.67% until goal reached.
I've got a lot of cleanup work to do for the remaining june positions. The good thing is that I've got 5 weeks in the June cycle to do my cleanup. The RUT is about 10-15 pts above the 50 day ema so it still has some room to drop before any signficant damage is done. The S&P basically closed right on its 20day. I wouldn't be surprised to see a retest of the 50 day which would be a healthy pullback before we try another attempt at the 200 day. So we'll see what the market action looks like. Heres a list of the positions I'm taking into June: OPEN POSITIONS bot jun 480/470 put/short junQ 47 iwm put@ credit of $56.89 bot jun 480/470 put/short junQ 47 iwm put@ credit of $16.49 bot jun 450/460 call/short junQ 34 iwm call @ credit of $305.58 short junQ 39 iwm call@ credit of $394.53 bot jun 360/370 call/short junQ 37 iwm call @ cost of $118.34 bot jun 470/480 call/short 33 junQ iwm call @ credit of $282.13 bot jun 350/340 put @ cost of $492.36 short junQ 39 iwm put @ credit of $44.10 bot jun 330/340 call/short junQ 34 iwm call @ cost of $155.06 short junQ 40 iwm put @ credit of $62.58 bot jun 360/370 call/short junQ 34 iwm call @ cost of $153.51 short junQ 41 @ credit of $39.13 short junQ 44 iwm put @ credit of $79.46 bot jun 380/390 call/short junQ 39 iwm call @ cost of $138.06 short junQ 44 iwm put @ credit of $74.94 short 53 jun iwm put @ credit of $368.82 bot jun 490/500 call @ cost of $602 short 53 jun iwm put @ credit of $433.82 short jun 53 iwm put @ credit of $388.82
It was impressive to see gains for May and June doesn't look too bad. What I am missing is new positions? Have you decided to damage control first?
Up until this past monday the available option schedules were bad. I would have had to trade the sept RUT positions with short septQ iwms which is just waaaay to far away. So I decided to just concentrate on may and june. They've finally opened up july which I'm looking at but right now just waiting to get a feel for the market. We're bouning off the 20 and 10 support levels for the past few days on the S&P which is holding the RUT up. So just waiting to get in.
I decided to go ahead and do a small buy the dip on this move down. I added the following: bot jun 440/450 call @ cost of $742 I'm still viewing this as a standard pullback. Until we get a break of the 50 day which is around 467, I'm going to view this as a dip buying opportunity. The basic plan is if we continue to sell off then I can go ahead and start closing my 360/370/37iwm and 380/390/39iwm positions for a profit. Right now I'm waiting to see if we can get a break of the 200 day on the upside because then I can go ahead and establish my put positions as well. I'm looking at a range between 450 and 550.
We got a nice bounce off the 20 day on S&P and now lets see if we get the move to the 940 range this week. I am looking to start establishing some additional call and put positions expiring in june to makeup for some losses suffered from my DITM short calls. I'll probably start slowly adding tomorrow. Today I just closed the following: short junQ 39 iwm put @ profit of $23.35 No sense in leaving it hanging out there for .20 Here is a list of what I currently have closed and open in june: CLOSED POSITIONS short junQ 39 iwm put @ profit of $23.35 OPEN POSITIONS bot jun 480/470 put/short junQ 47 iwm put@ credit of $56.89 bot jun 480/470 put/short junQ 47 iwm put@ credit of $16.49 bot jun 450/460 call/short junQ 34 iwm call @ credit of $305.58 short junQ 39 iwm call@ credit of $394.53 bot jun 360/370 call/short junQ 37 iwm call @ cost of $118.34 bot jun 470/480 call/short 33 junQ iwm call @ credit of $282.13 bot jun 350/340 put @ cost of $492.36 bot jun 330/340 call/short junQ 34 iwm call @ cost of $155.06 short junQ 40 iwm put @ credit of $62.58 bot jun 360/370 call/short junQ 34 iwm call @ cost of $153.51 short junQ 41 @ credit of $39.13 short junQ 44 iwm put @ credit of $79.46 bot jun 380/390 call/short junQ 39 iwm call @ cost of $138.06 short junQ 44 iwm put @ credit of $74.94 short 53 jun iwm put @ credit of $368.82 bot jun 490/500 call @ cost of $602 short 53 jun iwm put @ credit of $433.82 short jun 53 iwm put @ credit of $388.82 bot jun 440/450 call @ cost of $742
I went ahead and added the following position today: bot jun 530/520 put/short jun 52 iwm put @ cost of $403 This position is profitable down to about RUT 460. If we get that low then I can go ahead and close my 37 and 39 call positions. Even if we break the 200 day (currently around 511) I think that we might go as high as that 540-550 level but we should get a pullback down to 520 at least once so that I can exit this position if that happens.
We finally got the move up to the 200 day EMA on the S&P. Right now the Naz and RUT have both broken through their 200 day EMA but the S&P closed just below it. All three indexes must break the 200 day to really confirm the move so lets see if the S&P can break through and hold for a few days and that would give more reason to believe that we are very near the end of this bear run. Anyway I made some changes in the portfolio: I closed the following positions: short junQ 40 iwm put @ profit of $49.83 short junQ 41 @ profit of $22.38 For the position bot jun 480/470 put/short junQ 47 iwm put@ credit of $56.89 I sold the 480/470 put spread for $123 which results in short junQ 47 iwm put @ credit of $179.89 Finally I purchased a jun 540/530 put to pair with one of my short 53 iwm jun puts to form the following: bot jun 540/530 put/short jun 53 iwm put@ cost of $293.18
So far the Nasdaq and RUT have both broken the 200 day EMA, the only one holding up the show is the S&P. The 200 day on the S&P has been right around 943 the past week and so far that has held. Basically all 3 indexes must break their respective 200 day EMA's in order to form solid support at those levels but so far the S&P has not done so therefore I still think there's a good chance we pullback for at least one more retest of the 20 day avgs. My expectation is that we will see a pullback this week since there is very little significant news in the coming week. Looking at my portfolio, the chances of making a profit this month are almost non-existent so I am just looking to minimize the damage and then start to look towards july or august. I made several changes this week when I had the chance (pretty busy week at work). Here is a list of the changes I made: bot jun 480/470 put/short junQ 47 iwm put@ credit of $16.49 I sold the 480/470 put so I am left with short junQ 47 iwm put @ credit of $104.49 I currently have the following positions: short 53 jun iwm put @ credit of $433.82 short jun 53 iwm put @ credit of $388.82 I went ahead and purchased the 560/550 put spreads to match up with these puts. My belief is that if we do not get a pullback on some profit taking this week then the next likely reversal point is in the 540-550 zone so I am not expecting RUT to settle above that level. So by buying the 560/550 spreads I have the following positions: bot jun 560/550 put/short jun 53 iwm put @ cost of $348.18 bot jun 560/550 put/short jun 53 iwm put @ cost of $418.00 and I also added bot jun 560/550 put/short jun 54 iwm put @ cost of $551.00 Here is a list of the current closed and open positions CLOSED POSITIONS short junQ 39 iwm put @ profit of $23.35 short junQ 40 iwm put @ profit of $49.83 short junQ 41 iwm put @ profit of $22.38 short junQ 44 iwm put @ profit of $59.01 short junQ 44 iwm put @ profit of $54.49 OPEN POSITIONS short junQ 47 iwm put @ credit of $179.89 short junQ 47 iwm put @ credit of $104.49 bot jun 450/460 call/short junQ 34 iwm call @ credit of $305.58 short junQ 39 iwm call@ credit of $394.53 bot jun 360/370 call/short junQ 37 iwm call @ cost of $118.34 bot jun 470/480 call/short 33 junQ iwm call @ credit of $282.13 bot jun 350/340 put @ cost of $492.36 bot jun 330/340 call/short junQ 34 iwm call @ cost of $155.06 bot jun 360/370 call/short junQ 34 iwm call @ cost of $153.51 bot jun 380/390 call/short junQ 39 iwm call @ cost of $138.06 bot jun 540/530 short 53 jun iwm put @ cost $293.18 bot jun 490/500 call @ cost of $602 bot jun 560/550 put/short jun 53 iwm put @ cost of $348.18 bot jun 560/550 put/short jun 53 iwm put @ cost of $418.00 bot jun 440/450 call @ cost of $742 bot jun 560/550 put/short jun 54 iwm put @ cost of $551.00
We got a nice pullback most of the day, however the S&P bounced right off the 10 day avg (926.43) the days low was 926.44 so unfortunately the bounce on the S&P dragged the RUT off the lows as well. Not that it matters because it looks like the 520 level which was previously resistance is acting like support. So it still looks like a consolidation move thus far. I am still expecting to see a bigger pullback to the 20 day at least once before we can go much higher. If we don't get the pullback to the 20 day then I am expecting 545-550 to hold as resistance through next friday's expiration. Today I added the following position: short jun 54 iwm put @ credit of $176.25