Sure, be glad to give it a try. Maybe you will open my eyes to something i haven't thought of. I have a fairly sophisticated framework for NT already built out that is easy to extend or modify with different entry/exit criteria. Most likely will not take long to build and backtest. The only major limitation is that NT is mostly unable to scan a large number of instruments (hence, why i use Amibroker for swing trading, where i scan the entire market for signals). Drop me a PM if you want to give it a try...
More public shaming... After having supreme conviction in a short crude play last night, i sold 4 lots short. I watched crude rise for no reason for hours, until i incurred nearly 1.5% in losses. I went to bed, firm in my conviction. I woke up to find my trade now in the positive, exactly as i had expected. And what did i do? I closed it. With about .2% in gains. Meanwhile had i just held for a couple of more hours, jackpot. I have eliminated most of my problems, but one of the largest remaining issues is closing winners way too early after/when the trade has started out by going against me. I know damn well I can't get ahead with that R/R, but after i'm a few K in the hole, all of a sudden getting back to even feels like a win. And in last nights case, crude never exceeded my intended stop loss. I think the issue is related to trade size...need to trade smaller size so i am completely comfortable with the potential loss.
Good call, I did a similar thing a couple months back... Shorted gold at 1215 then stopped out for a small loss as it rose a little further. Still firm in my conviction that the top was near, I tried again at around 1220 I believe, and again stopped out for a small loss. I also committed the same mistake with going long /DX in the high 74's. I guess when we have these strong convictions about trend changes it's best to start small and then add to our position as it moves in our favor. I'm still angry with myself over these trades, if I had been a little more experienced with my risk management/stops etc, they could have made my year.
It sounds like your stops are too tight. I was having that problem before. What i do is pick my stop for technical reasons (previous resistance, etc), then i add some 'cushion' on top (because if i see the stop, 'they' see it). That helped my win rate a lot. But, now all of a sudden you have to be willing to ride out a larger loss. All fine and good, but thats where i get to my current poblem -- which is i do ride out the loss, but then i cut my winner short. And by short, i am usually taking just a little bit over break even. I'm pretty sure its trade size related for me, at this point.
If you think this is important, you have a very long way to go Traders worry about their expectancy. Newbies worry about their win rate
I have tried low win rate systems. Doesn't work for me in practice. I need a decent win rate otherwise i start to develop confidence issues. Mind you, i'm just saying i like to have 50% - 65%. I can't stomach anything much lower. Not saying im not a nooob, but i've explored different systems with various R/R options and win rates.
I think you are correct in saying that you need to go smaller size. Trading oil is very humbling, the one thing you are missing is the technicals in the oil trade. You might want to learn trendline drawing. Oil relies on these quite a bit, and that is what happend yesterday causing the big fall. The support trendline was broken dating from 2/5-2/12. If you have trouble drawing them you could subscribe to chartwhiz.com I have been watching his report for a couple months now and he does not seem to miss much.
No, i am not highly successful. I am flat for the last two years, which beats buy and hold (at least for those two years), but isn't going to cut it moving forward. I work full time, so i usually swing trade equities. I have been profitable in that venture. However, I began more day trading futures last year and lost anything I made swing trading equities. Mostly trading CL and ES. But i think my futures trading may be close to ready to turn the corner. Maybe. Main thing is i work full time so I don't have the time to perfect such a short term system (or work out my personal kinks). So, i am generally automating systems and taking very select manual futures trades (where i think there is a particularly high probability).