I've found this to be true as well and I eventually got tired of frustration of missing great trades because of an ugly hard right edge. Once you start trading those signals on a regular basis ("just hold your nose and trade 'em"), pretty soon you find it very easy to trade them.
There is so much truth to that statement. Many of the longs that looks like crap when you take it leads to some good trades. Mind makes one to think this is not going to work and hence forces the trader to close the trade before it has a chance to work itself. Best solution is to put in your trade based on the decision you made before you placed your trade and let the stop and target take care of itself so as to not second guess your entries after you enter. Personally the decision I make before the trade most times are lot better than the decisions I make once my trade is in the DOM because of emotions clouding your judgement B
Personally, i always cringe when i see this statement. Trading our preferred signals is what it is all about. That being true, why would the signal need to stink up the joint? A GOLD signal is nothing more than what we are looking for, what we want, our buddy system. They are a 'JOY' to take, we feel smart when we sit and watch them set up, we get a rush hitting the mouse because our GOLD signals are the 'EASIEST' to take. Now, if you trade CL, regular TA is thrown out the window unless one is from another planet. ( i no longer do, the technicals do not setup to my liking and in order to trade CL to my liking i would need outlandish STOPS where the reward relative to the risk is lost because of the width of the stops. scalping for small moves has never worked for me as i stated before) aside from ET's 'Mom in Chief', i only see CL traders throwing darts. Love your signals, no good signals are hard to take........... that is a myth...
I have this equities system i run, its all based on weekly closing prices. I look forward to the end of every week like you wouldn't believe in the hopes that a new signal will be produced. And i relish the opportunity to open those positions on Monday morning. Of course, I only get 5 or 10 of these per year, so there is a lot of waiting. But i have this futures swing trading system, based on daily prices, that I am having a harder time with. I should relish each of these signals as much as i do those in the equities system, and the fact that I don't clearly just shows a lack of confidence in that system. I'm actually decently confident in the system, but it has been on a three year tear, and im worried I am starting trading it right at the beginning of a big DD period. Anyway, the signals that are so hard to take are on price charts that alreayd appear overextended in the direction of my signal. They seem to almost universally keep going when i don't buy them (as I wait for the proverbial "dip" that never comes...) But yes, Big Hog, i agree -- these signals should be a delight and a pleasure to execute. If I can't be confident in this system when I am at all new account highs, imagine what will happen during a significant drawdown? The thing is I have tested this system on data since 1970, and its pretty rock solid. The thing I don't trust about the results, however, is the role that using continuous contracts plays and the potential it may have for producing skewed results. Anyway, proof and confidence is an interesting thing when it comes to trading...
Thanks HB for posting this thread and your results. I found it interesting you thought the ETFs work better under a weekly time frame. May I ask does the same go for the commodity futures as well? I've seen a signal system where the trader would base his trades on a weekly stochastic, then during a rough patch he would use a "secondary" system based on daily time frame. I've been searching for a mechanical method for trading most all commodity futures. Thanks.
Thanks for your question! For my weekly system, ETFs work well because I use broad-based index ETFs only (e.g. SPY, ILF, FXI, etc). The low volatility in these lends them to well to a weekly based system. I should also note that, with this weekly system, I am only trying to produce returns of about 20%-25%, so this is more of a managed investing approach rather than trying to make a living based on active trading. Futures are so volatile I was not able to make a weekly system work. Therefore, I use daily price data. My system is a simple channel breakout system, but I added my own bit of proprietary logic which seems to eliminate enough false-breakouts to make the system highly profitable. Both systems are pretty simple in that they don't apply a lot of indicates, more just relative comparisons of price. I do use a long-term MA in the weekly equities system, however. Hope that helps a bit...
Your welcome. Thanks for clarification! I'm trying more of a daily intraday thing. Those index ETF's you mentioned could be good for delta-neutral option spreads I think. yes, I haven't had luck with weekly only futures either, only intraday. Good luck on your strategy. Looking forward to seeing how it continues.
Hard to swallow.... Performance for Week 26: Weekly % Return = +2.14% 2011 P/L = +25.2% Current DD = -0.00% MDD = -12.05% Even though my systems were neutral to bearish to start out the week, I ended up making good shwag last week. Most of the gains were due to my futures system pivoting thursday night to go heavily long, and the subsequent friday meltup. Still, i only made ~2% when the broader market pulled in 4+, so while it adds to my gains for the year, i did underperform for the week. Anyway, more important is the fact that both my systems are now balls-long after last weeks meltup. My equity system entered a new position in ILF, and my futures system went long across a number of risk-oriented markerts. THIS IS A HARD PILL TO SWALLOW. Every ounce of my being wants to short a 4%+ up week. But i did not and will not. I will follow my signals here, and either lose half of my gains on the year or will blow this year out of the water. Since the obvious trade here is short, maybe i stand some chance....we will see. The more important test, I believe, is my ability to take signals that i find distasteful. Position Exits generated this week: Cover Short NKD(nikkei fut) New Positions entered this week: Long Aussie Dollar (fut) Long Canadian Dollar (fut) Short Platinum (fut) Short Crude (fut) * signal generated at 93 i entered at $96 Short 10year-note (fut) Long copper (fut) Long Nikkei (fut) Long ILF (equities) Existing Positions remaining open: Long TLT Short Wheat (fut) Long Swiss Franc (fut) *I still have not entered this and it is running away from me Long Sugar (fut) *I did not execute this trade and it ran away from me Short NatGas(fut) *i did not take this trade and it ran away from me Long IWM (equities) Should be an interesting couple of weeks...my open positions and total leverage are pretty large at this point. Cheers, HB
All is well that ends well... Performance for Week 27: Weekly % Return = +0.92% 2011 P/L = +26.7% Current DD = -0.00% MDD = -12.05% Another pretty good week, continuing a blistering three months of performance. After being down over 12% in early march, I have had a pretty good winning streak. A few facts: - i'm up 11 out of the last 12 weeks - i'm averaging 1.22% gain per week - up 44% from my MDD in early March A pretty good run by any standard, and putting me near my yearly goals. Last week my account saw a lot of volatility - i was down a couple of percent at two different points in the week. But, both times the account recovered nicely. My systems went from bearish/neutral to extremely bullish last week, so most of my open positions are now looking for major breakouts across most markets. Position Exits generated this week: New Positions entered this week: Long RBOB (futures) - *didn't take this signal yet due to too much leverage on currently Long ES (fut) Long NQ (fut) Existing Positions remaining open: (equities) Long TLT Long IWM Long ILF Long Gold *need to enter this open signal on a dip (futures) Short Wheat Short Platinum (fut) Short Crude (fut) Short 10year-note (fut) Short NatGas*i did not take this trade and it ran away from me Long Swiss Franc Long Sugar *I did not execute this trade and it ran away from me Long Aussie Dollar (fut) Long Canadian Dollar (fut) Long copper (fut) Long Nikkei (fut) Cheers, HB
Lots of uncertainty... Performance for Week 28: Weekly % Return = +0.53% 2011 P/L = +27.5% Current DD = -0.00% MDD = -12.05% Another up week, but not by much. System is leaning long, which I feel may be the wrong direction. I am hedging certain positions with puts, where possible. This will reduce my returns and hopefully volatility until we clear the debt ceiling debate... Position Exits generated this week: Exit Long ES (fut) Exit Short Wheat(fut) Exit Short NG(fut) Exit Short Platinum(fut) Exit Short 10-YR note(fut) Exit Long Sugar(fut) New Positions entered this week: Enter Long Gold (fut) Existing Positions remaining open: (equities) Long TLT Long IWM Long ILF Long Gold *need to enter this open signal on a dip (futures) Short Crude (fut) Long Swiss Franc Long Aussie Dollar (fut) Long Canadian Dollar (fut) Long copper (fut) Long Nikkei (fut) Cheers, HB