A teensy, tiny break in the gloom... Performance for Week 9: Weekly % Return = +2.1% 2011 P/L = -4.8% Current DD = -10.2% (carryover from last year) MDD = -12.05% Got lucky this week...bigger winning position in gold futures as well as decent performance in EWZ and FXI. Not bad at all considering I am reasonably underinvested given that I closed positions in TUR and VNM. And thank goodness i followed my system and closed those two, as they collapsed this week. With the runup in all my positions this week, i did apply some hedges in the form of puts and short calls. Could come back to bite me if they get really hot, but i feel good about the timing on those. Nice to be down less than 5% on the year now. Getting back in the black is within easy distance. I have a 20% equity boost for my account waiting in the wings -- when i get back to even for the year i will inject the extra funds into my account and begin trading with them. I also might deploy them if there is a really decent selloff, but doubtful on that count. I got new signals this week in Chile and HAO (china small cap). I might take some small positions in those two, but i am hesitant with the situation in crude. Lets hope i am breakeven by the end of this month and can spend the next three quarters banking coin.
Scratching and clawing my way back.... Performance for Week 11: Weekly % Return = +2.6% 2011 P/L = -0.9% Current DD = -6.5% MDD = -12.05% I've now had three positive weeks in a row. Oddly, I seem to be doing better as market volatility and downside pressure increase. I am now down slight less than 1% on the year, which is impressive since I've also given up 2% in transaction costs and another 5% going tilt one rough day in crude. Without the overtrading and the stupid loss of control in CL that day, I would be handily outperforming the S&P. In fact, I now have over $150,000 in losses in CL on just four trading days during the last year. Excluding those four trading days, my overall trading has been extremely profitable and, in fact, even my CL trading has been decently profitable. Now, how to avoid those meltdown days is the big question...they are already smaller and much fewer and farther between, so i am probably on the right track. But i digress...the most impressive and important part of my performance during the last two weeks is that I managed to make these gains in a mostly discretionary fashion and via my futures trading system, all while my equity trend trading system has been getting hammered. On monday, i will close one of my last two positions from this system (FXI), leaving me with only EWZ still open. I believe i stand a good chance of still finishing this year up 20% or 30%, which is all i am really aiming for. IN the meantime, looking forward to hopefully digging out of my hole by end of next week and at least getting even for the year.... peace HB2000
2% in transaction costs yet you're swing trading? Who is your broker and how much are you paying per share or per trade, if you don't mind me asking?
I swing trade but also do some discretionary trading of ES and CL futures. I occasionally overtrade, particularly in CL, and that is what drives the transactions. Last year my transactions costs approached 50% (on almost 10,000 trades), so 2% thus far has me on a much better run rate. I need to stop altogether, since it doesnt seem to make me any money. I pay $5 per side on equities trades, so the broker pricing is fine...futures commissions are cheap too.
A great shot to end the quarter in the black... Performance for Week 12: Weekly % Return = +2.4% 2011 P/L = +1.6% Current DD = -3.1% MDD = -12.05% After a tumultuous start to the year, including a 12% drawdown during one of the easiest periods to make money in the history of the market, i have finally returned to profitability. I am still a bit below my peak equity achieved in week 1 or 2 of the year, but the important thing is I am currently profitable within the year. Its interesting to note that if I had not blown 4% in a single day trading crude, my year would look a lot better both from a return and a volatility standpoint. My MDD would only be around 8% and I would be sitting on 7% or so YTD returns. Oh well, live and learn. (and learn and learn) Last week was an excellent week, with most of my gains occurring through discretionary trading. I am out of most trend following trades, although I will be reopening a trade in FXI on Monday. I have been in and out of FXI three times already this year, so lets see if the signal is legit this time. AS I mentioned during an earlier post, I am injecting a 20% increase of funds into my account. I said I would wait until I was back above breakeven on the year before putting the new funds to work, and now that has been achieved so the funds will now be available for trading. At this point, I will look to slow down discretionary trading and focus more on system trend trading. My discretionary trading will pickup in times of significant volatility, which seems to be subsiding at this time. HB
A monster week and a monster comeback.... Performance for Week 13: Weekly % Return = +2.9% 2011 P/L = +4.6% Current DD = -0.4% MDD = -12.05% This week finds me back to within 4/10 of a percent of all-time account highs, which is pretty shocking/surprising to me given the state of affairs just a few weeks ago. When I was down 12% at the end of February, I had the confidence that my system would make it back, but the speed with which its happened has definitely surprised me. This week my positions in EWZ and FXI finally exploded higher, and i'm thinking it could be the beginning of a big run. If so, this could catapult me to the gains I am expecting for the year. My current system configuration is targeting gains between 30% and 40% this year, so I've got a long way to go if that is going to prove true. I'll take anything above 20% as a success. There are two points to be concerned about as I look forward: 1) I am still down against the S&P on the year, although i've crushed it over the last few weeks. My biggest problem is that i'm being too risk averse -- YES, thats right, too risk averse. My account is several times larger than its ever been and I am having some trouble adapting to the larger position sizes and cash swings, even though %-wise its all the same. NEED TO ADAPT. 2) More acutely, i was foolish enough to go short 4 CL cars at the close on Friday. Will close them sunday night at the open, but SHEESH, here is a chance where i could lose 2% or 3% on the year just screwing around with CL. She is a saucy siren and a tempting seductress, that CL. Hopefully i get out without too much damage. HB
I'm an idiot. Performance for Week 14: Weekly % Return = +0.1% 2011 P/L = +5.9% Current DD = -0.37% MDD = -12.05% Both of my systems performed beautifully this week, as they had me short the dollar and long asian/ewz equities. My account reached all new highs mid-week and i went into friday up more than 2% on the week. Then idiocy took over, i shorted silver, gold and oil, and lost all my gains. Discretionary trading has not been working for me lately, thats for sure. On the bright side, my systems are working amazingly well and my confidence in those continue to grow. I am still short gold and silver into the weekend, and now that a budget deal was signed I am hopeful for a quick selloff on Monday/Tuesday. If that happens those trades could turn positive quickly and next week could be a very big week. We shall see. All in all, I'm up a respectable almost 6% on the year and am optimistic i can/will at least double returns on the S&P this year.
Oh no, you must've missed that big study that was just published: "Shorting silver, gold and oil was proven to cause a variety of symptoms including, but not limited to, heart palpitations, heartburn, nausea and vomiting, and total loss of bowel control Hey, they can't go up forever; good luck into the new week, HB
Thanks I cannot resist trying to pick tops. I'm not even trying to resist it any more. My entire strategy now is simply to avoid going on tilt while trying to do so and preserve as much capital as possible. I am relatively hopeful that they will all come down monday since the government didn't shut down....we'll see. Might turn out alright.
Actually, its not really trying to pick tops per se....its more like i can't resist trying to fade overextended rallies. It's a pretty hard way to make money. I full well realize gold & oil are likely going much higher...