huge stock market rally is over for now!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by B. Rowshan, May 8, 2009.

Is the huge rally over for now?

  1. yes, rowshan is usually right

    110 vote(s)
    34.2%
  2. No! more upside ahead

    113 vote(s)
    35.1%
  3. I don't know/I don't care/stop with your polls

    106 vote(s)
    32.9%
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  1. Why 85? Please explain. Thanks.
     
    #351     Jul 9, 2009
  2. Dow hit resistance at 8230 and dropped like a rock. Bear trap or textbook head & shoulders we shall see.
     
    #352     Jul 9, 2009
  3. It's actually an extrapolation based on the correlation of the currency pairs I mentioned (with the S+P) and where I expect them to go.
     
    #353     Jul 9, 2009
  4. OK, can i ask you for more than a one-liner please.

    I ask because there is seemingly no support or resistance tests that have occured at S&P 850. I'm not a forex guy, i'm just trying to understand.
     
    #354     Jul 9, 2009
  5. Sure. but I don't have the exact numbers here at work, but here goes...

    The correlation between AUD/JPY is here (though my numbers at home are slightly different)...

    http://forexautomaton.com/research/...-of-financial-crisis-spy-and-audjpy-2007-2009

    Based on my projected analysis, I expect AUD/JPY to retest the 68 area, which I calculate to be about 850 on the S+P.

    I also look at the AUD/USD correlation as well and factor that in.

    That kinda make sense?

    So while there probably are no resistance levels on the S+P as you say, I'm translating my forex resistance area into the S+P so we both speak the same language. :)
     
    #355     Jul 9, 2009
  6. Watch the yen crosses for equity direction. I use guppy mas to visually see the strength of the move. I don't need complex algos to tell me the yens are moving. Aussie correlates better with the precious metals than equities. Aussie should hold up better than the other majors should the government's price fixing fail. With the spx trading at ~14.9PE and int rates climbing they will force another liquidation. The excess debt must be washed out in order for us to move forward [recovery].
     
    #356     Jul 9, 2009
  7. Not sure yen is leading equities or if equities are leading the yen.
     
    #357     Jul 9, 2009
  8. Dropped out of my AUD shorts, as this train looks like it might resume it's move up, now.
     
    #358     Jul 9, 2009
  9. On a beautiful friday morning, life is good.

    Isn't it great that you can take b. rowshan to the bank everytime amigo$ !
     
    #359     Jul 10, 2009
  10. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    Should have sat on your hands?
     
    #360     Jul 10, 2009
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