huge stock market rally is over for now!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by B. Rowshan, May 8, 2009.

Is the huge rally over for now?

  1. yes, rowshan is usually right

    110 vote(s)
    34.2%
  2. No! more upside ahead

    113 vote(s)
    35.1%
  3. I don't know/I don't care/stop with your polls

    106 vote(s)
    32.9%
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  1. I stand corrected. I am 3 for 3 this year. I would be 4 for 4 if I started a new thread this week featuring my latest call. But I cannot count coulda's and woulda's.
     
    #201     Jun 8, 2009
  2. Last I checked the call in your first post of this thread is wrong as the spooz took out 940. We'll be over 1000 this fall.
     
    #202     Jun 8, 2009
  3. This thread is just like a car accident. You don't want to look but you can't turn away either.
     
    #203     Jun 8, 2009
  4. piezoe

    piezoe

    That's one of the funniest things i have read on ET in a long time. describes the situation exactly.
     
    #204     Jun 8, 2009
  5. pspr

    pspr

    If the market is climbing a wall of worry, Obama is presenting it with plenty to worry about.
     
    #205     Jun 8, 2009
  6. the market traded below for ~3 weeks. a good call considering this is the first such weakness since the rally started.
     
    #206     Jun 8, 2009
  7. This isn't weakness: it's consolidation.
     
    #207     Jun 8, 2009
  8. Ear to ear, when I think of all the shorts in the strongest bull run in 60+ years.

    How dumb can you be.
     
    #208     Jun 8, 2009
  9. yonisin

    yonisin

    Please stop this thread. Eventually he has to be right. But how much gain have his lemmings lost.
     
    #209     Jun 8, 2009
  10. Here is the dictionary meaning of the phrase "for now":

    noun

    the present time "that's all for now"

    ==========================

    I started this thread on May 8th with the S&P @ 928. Over the course of the next few weeks, the S&P never went higher, and was about 50 points lower weeks later. Obviously, the rally was over "for now".

    People are confusing the term "for now" with "forever". If I said "the rally is over forever", well that means the S&P will "never" go above 928. The odds of this happening are maybe 1 in 1000 or .1%. So for those of you rejoicing that the S&P finally managed to punch thru 928 a month later are rejoicing at an event with a probability of 99.9%. Keep rejoicing while I continue to laugh at you.

    In poker, if I need an ace (and only an ace) on the river, I still have a 5% chance of winning.

    When I said "the rally is over for now" the odds were maybe 8 to 1 or 10 to 1 against me. It's not easy to find the precise top to an upward thrusting market. But that's exactly what this thread did. When I started this thread on May 8th, it did mark the end of the rally "for the present time".

    I'm sure there are a few people on this board who understand statistics and can corroborate what I am saying and the probable odds of these events I outlined.
    I look forward to a dialogue with anyone who understands statistical analysis and wants to discuss probabilities with respect to events "for now" and "forever".

    Class dismissed.
     
    #210     Jun 8, 2009
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