These are my best reasons. I have made quite a nice career trading using simple analysis like this. In my opinion to be a successful trader, you need to be quick fingered and light on the quality analysis. But i'll add that I feel strongly that I will be proven right, and i'll gladly answer any relevant questions.
i don't see excessive bullishness in sentiment polls. by this criterion, i would guess we still have some upside.
Is there any chance that you would share those poll results with us (link would be nice) Although I do concur to the opinion that we are at the top +/- 2% I also look at sentiment measured by PUT/CALLs and I would love to see other measures at work Thanks in advance
Here is the chart for you, gentlemen. Note for how long the value has not exceeded 1. That's bullishness isn't it? Moving averages on this chart are also telling the story. Just try to find the same readings in the last 2 years or so.
Hmmm, are such low levels of risk aversion justified given current conditions, its not like the economy has turned up and is starting to add new jobs and production yet. Unemployment at 26 year high and risk aversion back to summer of 2007 levels when risk aversion didn't exist (NINJA loans), something doesn't jive and I suspect we will find out what by the end of June. http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVEFvOss9mCM&refer=home
i just look at the free stuff available on the web. recently i stumbled on the poll thestreet.com runs every week: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2419982#post2419982 Looks like we do have a bullish reading going into next week. not sure if this is excessive but it is a change from the bearish polls. Bullish 49.01% 823 votes Bearish 37.22% 625 votes Neutral 13.75% 231 votes the latest poll is here: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10498926/1/bull-or-bear-vote-in-our-poll.html
I'm actually looking at sentiment of money managers, but this poll is fairly accurate as to the current %.