S&P @ 928 3pm The great b. rowshan is back and bigger then ever! Huge rally is over for now. Is b. rowshan ever wrong?
Oh and here are a few reasons 1) intraday double top @ 93.1-93.2 on spy 2) excessive short term move up in bullish sentiment
Rowshan, please be a bit more specific in your analysis, or this has to go to chit-chat like every other random prediction. I know you claim you were correct before on another poll, but there is no evidence that was anything but luck. I am interested in your reasoning behind this poll, so please post a bit more than a one liner. I'll give it a day.
I feals very stretched, but I remember in 2003 I felt this way and the damm thing kept rising. bearish patterns, divergences blown to pieces. It was like everyone was scared they were going to miss something and buyers kept buying. Now brokers are starting to upgrade this and that and I just don't see an end anytime soon. They are going to ride this pony till it drops.
Sox is not confirming this break out and has actually broken its UTL from March low, nor is the action in some of the high beta names. Volume is unconvincing. Too much artificial support for the market, too much issuance coming and what is hitting the market is being flogged at below market prices, rates are heading up, gas prices heading up fast hitting an already weak consumer, taxes heading up. Most worrying is the fact that commercial defaults and BKs are at record levels and accelerating. CRE has yet to take the write downs that have hit the banks from the housing market (these are coming in 20-40% below where the banks are carrying these assets) and the jumbo write downs are really just starting on the residential side not to mention the shadow REO inventory. The unemployment rate may be declining at a slower pace due to government hiring (the least productive type and poorly paid) but it is still declining at a rapid pace (imagine how a -500K number would be reacted to in any normal year!), the ramifications on this huge and understated number of unemployed does not seem to be factored in to me. I do not see any scenario where these people get hired back in the next 12 months. Without some positive uptick in employment I have a hard time seeing any second half recovery. Basic TA on the weekly charts all seem to indicate a correction in the next two weeks and June is the month when a great deal of damage is usually done in bear markets. Sentiment indicators are getting extreme. Oh and sell in may and go away