anyone who has looked at money... knows its all relative to the basket of things or currencies. so you can make inflation stats say anything you wish... and I am not crying because I just had the best month of my life between trading and my business.... but prices are going up at close to10% percent a year for many items a family buys.
Good for you... Can I persuade you to sell me some "jemflation"-linked bonds? I can show you a good bid.
I think I will create an index... then later I will create and sell the rights to trade a derivative to my electronic exchange. you can be one of our market makers.
Peil didn't distinguish between "core" (sans energy and food) and "headline" CPI. He probably referred to "core" since the lamestream press usually say it's "less volatile" and imply that it's more reliable. They don't bother to say the bulk of the volatility that's eliminated is on the upside. That's why "core" has been lower than headline CPI more than 80% of the time over the last 11-12 years. Very convenient. And I love how BPP data only gets credit when it's similar to CPI. I'll take BPP any day over all the numerical massaging and manipulating that goes on at the BLS. It's even worse than what I saw in the military. Core CPI exists for political reasons. No one in the business/investing/trading world would come up with something like that.
I would argue against that. Core CPI used to be a more accurate measure of underlying, controllable inflation when energy and food prices were relatively stable but fluctuated up and down on a month over month basis. In this case core CPI could be more useful (kind of like stripping out 1-time items from EPS for a business). However, in today's world where energy prices and food prices have shot up (not so much volatility, but rather persistent gains) the CPI might make more sense now.
So every time there is a heatwave that destroys a lot of crops and causes a rise in food prices, the Fed is going to raise rates to combat these high prices? <IMG SRC=http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&id=CPIAUCSL,CPILFESL&scale=Left,Left&range=Custom,Custom&cosd=1960-01-01,1960-01-01&coed=2011-06-01,2011-06-01&line_color=%230000ff,%23ff0000&link_values=false,false&line_style=Solid,Solid&mark_type=NONE,NONE&mw=4,4&lw=1,1&ost=-99999,-99999&oet=99999,99999&mma=0,0&fml=a,a&fq=Monthly,Monthly&fam=avg,avg&fgst=lin,lin&transformation=pc1,pc1&vintage_date=2011-07-19,2011-07-19&revision_date=2011-07-19,2011-07-19> Inflation is a monetary phenomenon.
Well, both numbers are published. I really don't see how you can blame anyone, be it the media or the government, for "conveniently" eliminating the upside volatility. I am always happy to give the BPP data due credit, while acknowledging its limitations. As to the massaging and manipulation, this is a discussion I remember having before. If you have an alternative methodology, pls don't hesitate to suggest it. I have no idea where you get the idea that core CPI isn't used in the real world. It's used everywhere and is extremely useful for economic forecasting. It's also very useful for trading. I use it for analysis every single day.
Great. Let's see your results. Sanitized account statements, please? I expect you've made a lot more than Jim Rogers...right?
I don't benchmark myself to Jim Rogers, so why should I care whether I have made more or less than him? As to my results, I fear that will be difficult, due to a difference in context. You're gonna have to take my word for it (or not, as the case may be) that I do all right for myself.
small contries will not survive in the future,they`ll have to join their biggie neighbors.maybe it is already so,and we don`t know..