Well i have to say i was a bear today and i got some what squezed today I was accepting a sell off last 1 but the market just keep going higher WTF
Well, the first step is admitting to your problem. Now stay clean and never sell short again (at least not for the forseeable future...)
You may be right ... areyoukidding --> hairdresser ... I guess the guy doesn't realize that consumer spending is 2/3 of the economy ... oil has reached $72 ... savings rate is lowest since depression ... spending is gonna be pinched soon ... that said, I think we drift a bit higher through earnings ... then a pullback happens .. i just shorted a few stocks in the last 1/2 hour
So many people will read my comments today and chalk them up to the ravings of a mad man. Some will be so offended that they will short some more just to spite me. hehehehehe......
I'm hardly a macro bull but I will say that much of what conventional wisdom interprets as bearish during "normal" market cycles is being interpreted as bullish by today's manager/speculator. Let me explain. The market lows in Q4/2002 through Q1/2003 were reached during the aftermath of exhaustive deflation. Very much like the period of 1929-1932. Not only had equity prices crashed (in the case of NDX, a break of almost 85%), but gasoline, real estate, and commodity prices were on the global decline. That's a side comment I'd like to make. What's happening market wise right now is not just an American phenomena. ALL World markets are highly correlated at present. Following the tech collapse and the tragedy of 9/11, most participants were of the belief that the global economy of this decade would feature stagnant growth with continued downward pressure on prices. Ten year Treasury yields of under 4% with Fed Funds at under 1% buttressed the feeling of investors that American asset values might start resembling the depressive 1990's of Japan. Therefore starting with the war in Iraq (curious coincidence that the war marked the index bottom, NOT), the markets have been thrilled with any news that doesn't point to businessmen having to sell apples on street corners. Americans need to import illegal maids? BULLISH! Americans are so flush that they can put $3 a gallon gas into the tank on their way to the mall? BULLISH!! People are able to pay what for a 400sq ft apartment in Key West? BULLISH!! In short any news the past three years that's indicated we're moving away from recession, even if it has severe inflationary ramifications, is perceived as bullish. I see two problematic scenarios. One: if credit markets continue to swing the pendulum toward higher rates, at some point equity holders will feel compelled to take profits and seek a comfortable rate of passive return. If one were to invest in stocks at these levels and forsake a three year yield of 5%, you would need to see the S&P500 trade to 1550 over the next three years in order to "break-even" on the trade. Many may refuse to make that bet on longer durations. Secondly I don't rule out that this quasi inflation run could end in boom and bust. If I were long gold I'd be just as cognizant of 1980's break as I would 1979's rally. In fact, with the exception of energy's and metal's, I see very little inflation in the CRB. Lumber, grains and softs are lower than their median prices of the past twenty years and meat prices are off from their highs of last year by 15-20%. Not to mention that no matter where you look, be it London, Sydney, New York, Miami or Vegas, homes are in plentiful supply and at prices much more advantageous than the mania levels of last year. So in short I'm rarely TOO committed of a short here because IMO this stuff could rally a parabolic 5% at any time. Getting the DIA up to a new all time high would seem like skillful marketing by those who wish to distribute stock. But in short I think the rally is limited in time and price. Just my two cents.