Honestly, you are clueless. You have no reasons to call a top but you do anyways. How many of these misguided ridiculous posts are you going to put up before you learn ? As I stated a couple of days ago, the BEST short term result that US bears could expect was a choppy flat market. Support at 1250 and Resistance at 1300. However, the fact we are bumping up against resistance again suggests an upside breakout is very possible ( GDP number Friday could be the catalyst ). No worries anyways though, Canada is a better bet then the US for short term trading. Canadian markets showing every sign that a breakout rally has started that may push from current levels ( around 14100 ) to test 15000 in a month. Very strong technicals on the Canadian banks ( 30% of our market ), plus strong commodity prices will drive our markets higher. Very little exposure to anything in Japan and Europe in our markets, except the prospect of supplying resources to Japan as it rebuilds. So if you are indeed worried about the US, invest in Canada for a nice short term gain. Trade duration through late April then take profits, or 15,000 level, whichever comes first. You can thank me later.
Haha, cheer up mate; you really have no sense of humor. I'm actually quite a bit more bullish (or rather less bearish) than I was a few months ago. Usually I get more bullish with the declines and more bearish when it goes up a lot. Clearly you don't function by any similar kind of metric. It seems to me that the S&P500 will make a new 52-wk high within about two months, most likely, just for the sake of keeping the trend alive and kicking so to speak. Also, for index benchmarking, I look at the CAC40 which was 10% off and well below where I started to whine about how shit was messed up. Obviously it's rebounded a bit now but I didn't expect it to go straight down to zero at once. So why am I bearish? Well, I basically ask myself "how much worse can this get". I try to answer this question by thinking about the following: a) Has it been getting worse than I and consensus opinion thought it would be recently? (Check) b) Has it gotten better recently? (Not really) c) How has consensus opinion developed? (Complacency to the point of totally ignoring the risk. Literally everybody (and when I say literally it's not some kind of exagerative word, I really mean literally) who writes about finance is saying BUY JAPAN ) So we have a recipe for a massive fucking catastrophe here which I don't really think is being fully priced in. I'm not saying it will happen, I'm just saying the odds of it happening are a lot higher than when the market was a lot lower (not that it really matters where the market was at any point). When you have radioactive tap water in Tokyo, workers being evacuated from the site because radiation is getting out of hand and so forth, then the whole "Well, if shit really hits the fan we can just isolate the whole thing and it won't be a huge issue"-scenario really stops to be within the realm of the possible and moves a mass hysteria situation (which is already unfolding at this point) in Tokyo rather more likely. Now don't get me wrong, I'm actually quite optimistic by nature. I thought initially it really was going to be no problem (this was when the mainstream media were saying it was a big problem) but that was because I relied on experts (who are actual experts as opposed to the shitefags the papers dare to publish on the subject) who in turn relied on information from TEPCO which turned out to be a lieing, information obscuring bunch (in part because interviewers never asked the right questions so it was easy for them to evade the real deal). At this point the general vibe seems to be that it's not going to be a big problem (in the media/lay opinions) whereas the experts are sort of unanimous in their stance that they are not sure anymore because they feel that their information was not accurate before and thus can't be sure it is now. And just as I am writing this: *(PO) PORTUGAL PM SOCRATES SUBMITTED HIS RESIGNATION - PORTUGAL MEDIA (this was more or less expected by the way) How many fucking problems do you really think this market is going to keep ignoring forever? Apart from the whole Japan thing, it's just not going to be pretty when these peripheral gaylords simply refuse to do their part. I mean, take Ireland. They're whining on and on about the massively unfair interest rate they have to pay yet they refuse completely to lower their massively unfair (to the rest of EU) corporate tax rate in return for a rate cut. On the technicals: They are not good, in my opinion. Further we've had very good opens and not so great closings recently (apart from today where we had a shit close and a shit open with a grind higher in-between) which is not good. Put/Call ratios are really much to cheerful, VIX is much too cheerful, mutual fund flows are much too cheerful and everything is still too dandy for me to get excited about buying this market. We're very likely retesting those lows and probably heading even a bit lower (but not much, market is already quite oversold but we're not quite there yet. Will have to see what it looks like when we get down there in terms of what the issues at hand are in terms of how much lower than the previous lows she will venture). During a correction such as this you just don't chase the first bounce, you fade it. You really bring out the best in me in terms of writing silly opinionated pieces on the state of the markets I really don't care about the direction too much to be honest. Anyway, you can thank me later all right. Edit: And by the way, what is wrong with you anyway? You're the one who thought this market was never evah evah going to retest really anything and was just going to meltup forever. I'm not sure if you realized but the market went negative YTD and that makes me less clueless.
I read this: âOn the technicals: They are not good, in my opinion. Further we've had very good opens and not so great closings recently (apart from today where we had a shit close and a shit open with a grind higher in-between) which is not good. Put/Call ratios are really much too cheerful, VIX is much too cheerful, mutual fund flows are much too cheerful and everything is still too dandy for me to get excited about buying this market.â So on technicalâs I saw today the Dow move above its 20 day SMA and 50 day SMA after a slight indecision at resistance yesterday. Is this a fake out? It may be a fake out because volume was somewhat low. I would like to know what you traders think of this kind of technical event. I am just an old swing trader. I wonder, does this event mean anything today? When I started swing trading it was a big deal and all we talked about. I hardly ever hear this kind of analysis mentioned in these forums? Iâm not bullish or bearish. I just trade the set ups in the plan.
Longs be aware! Order flow is still bearish as fk, and today this was the third confirmation on that high of 1296. You have been warned!
1400 is coming. You have been warned. Buy some financials enjoy the ride up. Be aware and have the courage to profit from the next leg up. Don't be afraid to make money.
You think I'm doom and gloom? lol, I am just stating the facts brah. Order flow in ES is pretty freaking bearish as you can get right now. Anyways, don't get me mixed up with the other doom and gloomers. I aint them, I am just telling you what I am seeing.
Price action looks pretty good to me. Market feels firmly bid. I don't see us trading much below 1260 to 1270 on the downside, but upside feels like 1350 to 1375 is possible by Memorial day. That skews the risk/reward to favor longs. I've never seen a tape buy up so much bad news before. It's mind boggling. If we take out 1300 watch out, the move is going to be fast and swift.
You have to love America... Markets were literally negative YTD... 2 months of work gone in 2 weeks, and we're scarred to profit?... If market closes above 1300 -1305 for a day or rips right through, i am a buyer up to 1330, if not we test 1250.
Two months of work? LOL. Dude, we were only up 5% to 6%. And what does this have to do with America? Markets go up, markets go down. Don't be a drama queen. This is one of the most boring tapes in a while.
Nobody's a drama Queen, But statements like it takes courage to buy a tape is kind of comical... YTD 5-6% up = 2 months... 5-6% down = 2 weeks... Its simple math, things go down a lot faster than they go up, so take a shot at certain levels, if it moves against you take a small loss, then ride it up.... Buying all the time is not the answer though..