HUGE day UP coming for US Stocks tomorrow Monday 3/20-here is why...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by increasenow, Mar 20, 2011.

  1. HUGE day UP coming for US Stocks tomorrow Monday 3/20-here is why...

    #1-Japan nuclear issue appears to be getting under control

    #2-Libya about to be liberated from Gadhafi

    #3-Oil appears to heading south, selling off...

    #4-JYen and safe Haven Swiss Franc will sell off

    #5-unless "existing home sales" at 10am EST on Monday lay a big egg, stocks will soar

    #6-interest rates (5,10,30 yr) way overbought...wil sell off...

    agree? thoughts? comments?
  2. You may be right...there is always a black swan probability...
  3. After the commencement of the second Iraq war, it took 10 trading days for the market to ceased decline and reversed itself. there were much stronger commitment to the war from U.S. and its allies then than now. Use that as a benchmark, you shall have pretty good idea how this Libya war will effect the market.
  4. Wow, you nailed it!! I think traders on the floor of CBOT have 1-4 written down so they can cross them off as their buy orders are filled
  5. I think you are out of you mind.....

    We had every reason to pop on thurs, friday.... The futures grinded up, but the session bots grinded every pop down....

    Oil will hit 110 without a problem...

    We test the lows before anything happens from here...
  6. No question. Equities may be up huge Monday. Thanks!
  7. Locutus


    Well, what often happens with these kind of things (a rather hefty decline in the face of seemingly huge problems, in particular after a long rally which has lasted two years, or the last leg almost half a year and has had no large pullbacks really) is that the market will continue to sort out opportunistic longs such as yourself.

    A whole lot of hysterical buyers from the "Gadaffi accepts ceasefire" are trapped again. They must have been quite optimistic at that time, yet now people are still shooting at each other. Just look at where the bodies are buried. From the previous week's action, those who sold the bottom were obviously getting crushed (lots of volume down there) and there wasn't a lot of volume hanging directly above that bottom, so you get a bounce.

    Furthermore, Fukushima situation is in no way under control and is also not what I would label "improving". Then we have some more potential problems which can come on the radar, Bahrain being a biggy.

    Then we have the whole budget crisis thing which can pop into the minds of the traders also.

    I'm not sure if the indices will go far below the previous low, but I think there is a good chance. Greed is punished and the greed trade at this particular hour is definitely to get long and hope and pray another huge rally is going to make you rich.

    Don't buy when prices and/or news continue to surprise to the downside (i.e. this dip is going a lot harder and faster than what would be expected from a "normal" dip, hence it could likely not result in an immediate huge bounce).

    Edit: Also, if the "Hysterical cease-fire buyers" don't get punished in the first two trading days this week, I expect the market will continue higher because as I said there are a lot of guys trapped at the lower prices (I expect there will be major support there also unless fundamentals deteriorate again), so there is a reasonable chance of a further bounce.

    My point is mainly it's about 40/60 now with odds favoring further declines. Huge dip, reasonably oversold though not quite there yet. Could ruin all the panic sellers but it could also make a lower low to really shake out the bulls.
  8. Locutus


    You'd be better of considering how and if this situation may escalate. What if Syria and/or Iran suddenly starts backing Gadaffi because their own populations are starting to riot and they don't want the US to interfere once they start cracking down on rebels? They're definitely axis of evil countries and they are definitely not friendly to US.

    It's not very likely, but it's certainly not impossible. This situation definitely has a lot of ways to get worse (if you also include Japan and some side issues) than how it is seen now, which is more important than comparing apples and oranges.
  9. TheMan



    is this the official INCY classroom thread on how to be a successful trader?

    i am in

    i hope to pick up some great insight

    thanks CAT :cool:
  10. I'm sure someone could think of 6 reasons why the market may go down. The real question is what's your position?

    What is the point of this, stop wasting your time looking for reassurance. How old are you 12?
    #10     Mar 20, 2011