Huge CL move tomorrow/Wed

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by increasenow, Apr 10, 2007.

  1. what I think is that there will be a HUGE move up or down tomorrow for's why..the report that comes out at 10:30AM EST will move it up or down big time...what do you think?
  2. Surdo


    You are really going out on a limb there big fellar!
    A regular T. Boone Pickens over there.

    Should I be LONG or SHORT going in to the number?
    el surdo
  3. 2006


    Thanks for the update. Let me mark that in my calendar.


    Done. Thanks again for the heads up.
  4. seriously...I would like to know what you think about the move tomorrow..thanks!
  5. I'm going to wait and let the price action show me which way the market is going after the news release. Otherwise it's just gambling.
  6. you guys are no fun. how about making a call.

    I call up ...

    EIA will be crude better than expectations w/ gasoline also the same.


    Ha ha...that is funny shit. I'm not so sure the thread starter is aware that this number comes out each and every Wednesday, but none the less, tomorrow should be interesting to say the least. I agree that having an open position into the number is mor eor less gambling without some sort of model to forecast what the data would be, but some are less risk averse than others.

    For the number, analysts are calling for yet another drawdown in gasoline, which will be the 9th straight week of withdrawals at a time when we should be building inventories for the summer driving season. There were 205 million bbls in inventory as of last week's report, which is 2 million under the 5 year average and 6 million under last year's figure for the same week. Expectations are for yet another drawdown of between 1.2 and 1.5 million additional bbls. depending on which major newswire service you listen to, which should lend further support to the already strong gasoline market. Distillates are also expected to draw yet again (600K - 1.0 million bbls draw there--but that number is unlikely to move the market much either way this time of year) while crude is expected to build 1.5 - 1.6 million bbls. Runs should be up slightly with utilization expected to increase 0.5%. Crude stocks are at a relatively healthy level of 332 million bbls. which is 22 million bbls above the 5 year average but 10 below last year's figure.

    An increase in runs and any build in gasoline stocks should be enough to send the market south, but as always anything is possible. My thinking is we'll continue to trade up, with another drawdown in gasoline likely to spur further rallies in that market, and that has been the complex leader of late. Last week's data was mixed with a 5.0 million bbl. draw in gasoline and a 4.3 million bbl. build in crude, both of which exceeded expectations and sent the gas crack screaming. If crude doesn't key off of gasoline sending the whole complex higher, look for the crack to widen further from it's currently lofty level of $27.50 or so.

    The long and short of it is I also think we're due for a bit of a pop in the whole complex, but if I had to pick one product to buy it would be RB going into the number. Just keep in mind inventory day can be rather volatile, and oftentimes there is a shakeout right after the number before the market assumes the true direction it will take.
  8. Usually the number that kicks in every wed at 10.30 (unless monday is a holiday, so the number is released on thursday) make wilds moves inside a range but rarely without some nice comeback.

    If you check the past you will see how usually after the inventory release there is a major move the next day (thursday) on one side. The wednesday are usually side-ways within 1.5 point range.

    We will see. In this game of couse none knows shit about future prices, but some people knows even less than that... :)
  9. Surdo


    The EIA numbers are so manipulated it really does not matter!

    Look how tight the range was today, we are due for another $2 move, which direction, I have NO F_cking clue frankly.

    good trading,

    el surdo
  10. after the selloff yesterday...yes I think alot of people will buy tomorrow. So...yeah.. your long position looks good.But this market is brutal. and i wouldn't recommend place a trade before a Number announcement. :)
    #10     Apr 10, 2007