Homes here in Ohio are dead money for the last 5 years. Of course I have 4,000 sq ft at a cost basis of $339,000 in 2002 so I hope to recover by the time my youngest goes to college in 12 years. There are 8 out of 49 homes in our sub for sale. Sold all my multifamily holdings in 2005 at a 7% cap rate, now they are going for 11%-12%. Didn't even do a 1031 at the time, paid the taxes and put everything in internationals and big caps so I'm doing all right. Should of bought some farmland!
A deal I'm privvy to: signed escrow papers two weeks ago on a 6 1/2 M deal. Was 8. Two prospective buyers walked. Price was lowered 20% and escrow terms tightened so if the buyers walk they'll lose alot of earnest money. NV.
The Manhattan hotshots have really outdone themselves this time. Since the second half of last year, interest level in condos has been a bit low while they are trying to pre-sell them in early stage of construction. So they quickly adjust the structure toward a hotel since NYC apparently is short on hotel space. Should get quite interesting when the market gets hit with too many hotels. If the financial industry, mainly IBs and hedge funds get hit, NYC real estate will suffer. A derivative market burst or even shock would do it. Or even the top of LBOs would do it. This city has become too dependent on the financial industry.
Exactly. New York is one gigantic bubble, and when the salad days of M&A, investment banking, and private equity/hedge fund hyperdrive slows to a crawl, you'll have an implosion. It happened before. History always repeats itself.
I agree on that, it could happen tomorrow or in 18 years, always seems that when things are good they can only get better and when there at there best, well......
Japanese real estate prices have declined for 18 years I believe, haven't looked it up in awhile. I think they were even more frothy then US though.
IN AUSTIN TX: Things have been dead/declining since 2000-2001 (tech bust in a tech town). Things were on fire from mid 1990's up to the bust. NOW: 2006 Q2 and forward. Things are definately moving again. We participated in none of the "mega moves" that the country has seen in the last 5 years...but now catching up--when everything else is headin' south across the nation. I'd say things are up 8-12% over the last 3/4 year. IN HAWAII, HI, Things have definately cooled off. A big portion of the residents here are from California....so, where California goes, so does HI--but much more muted. Inventories are stacking up, but prices haven't come off too much, yet. DOWN about 8-9% in 2006. Things are still selling-even in upper ends (min. 1.5-2mil.+++), but quality property is being demanded, with all the selections to chose from now. Probably a bit of overhang to clear out here yet.
Ft. Lauderdale: Homes are selling if priced right. Prices seem to be filling in 04-05 levels. 20% lower than the 06 highs. Many new listings continue to hit the market. Most are in the JIC stratosphere category but a few are cutting new ground to the sell side. Property taxes and hurricane insurance are prohibitive to new buyers. A non-homestead mil home in Lauderdale comes with 20k in taxes, 8k insurance and year round landscaping and A/C costs. Condo market is also down hard but everytime Chavez opens his mouth another new condo project in Miami sells out!
In D/FW, we never saw a huge rise in prices....maybe 30% in 8 years on my house. But things here are still booming. I'm in the commercial construction business and we are still turning work away. We work on some high end residential and it's still booming, lots of California money still moving in and buying here for a fraction of what they paid. If there is anywhere in the country that knows about how bad it can get, it's us here in Texas that lived through the boom of the 80's and the bust of the late 80's. We didn't have a recession here, we had a depression. Nearly 80% of the construction businesses went under during a 3 or 4 year stretch. What we are seeing in the sub prime implosion is very similar to the Savings and Loan implosion that happened here....the lead on the news every night was...Another S&L has shut it's door...that makes the 120th this year.
We've had land in Collin and Wise counties, among other places for decades. Mckinney was two stop lights off of 75 back then . Allen wasn't even a blip on the freeway. Denton was out in the middle of nowhere, womens college and all. We sell off pieces here and there for prices that seem obscene. We even have land up on the Red River in Cooke and Montague County that was offered at 200per acre 20 years ago...it's 20-30 times that now. It's crazy Even time I go back home I'm stunned at the continuing grow north from D/FW.