<i>"Intra-day players (AKA day-traders, but that's become a dirty word) were a tiny percentage of overall volume then, and now they've become the majority (if I'm not mistaken). Too many dollars, machines & minds are now chasing after decreasingly predictable intra-day moves."</i> For sure. The guys who are succeeding now would have absolutely killed it x10 using same tactics from 1999 - 2002 Stocks like RIMM now back in 00 - 02 (PDLI, anyone?) used to make $10 ~ $25 intraday ranges, day after day. Lots of individual stocks popped $20 ~ $50 overnight or even intraday on earnings (... and they beat the street by 2 cents... cnbc crowd goes wild) all the time. Slightly OTM options on stocks commonly went +300% intraday and +1,000% to +2,000% in a couple of days if held. We used to view option plays that went +100% overnight as not worthy of trailing stops to entry/par on. As for emini futures, the ES commonly made +10pt ~ +20pt directional moves, straight-line with little flags at every pause. Now they still move that same distance overall, with 37 zig-zags in between. A lift of +3pts ES will retrace -3.75pts and then shoot right up +6pts from there. Far different behavior than up +3pts ES, flag inside .75pts, up +6pts, flag inside of 1.5pts and up another +6pts from there. Completely different world now. Volatility has morphed into sideways violence for indexes. There is no way to describe the difference unless someone worked thru both periods equally. Markets are moving now, but the beat of computer drums is a much different rhythm to follow.
Yep to RM. And what I'm seeing right now reminds me so much of the nightmare that followed 2000. 07 and the whole financials meltdown was like the 2000 meldown. When it was over there was nothing but tough, tough, trading. I've seen in this thread that some are still doing really well. Guess they have different mo's than most of us. Congratulations.
So far I made a little fortune. How? By starting with a big fortune! But seriously, my hit quote is like a coin with heads only, unfortunatelly I am always betting tails. The first January days my coin always showed tails, I felt that isnt good, having only winners. And right I was, since then. At least I can sell a trading signal system now: whatever it suggests, just do the opposite (avg hit rate 99.9% a year, if you leave out the first days in January you will get 100%, guaranteed)! Who wants some book about statistics, probability, and so on? I change it for a monkey throwing darts on my monitors (preferably with rubber heads).
Generally speaking I would agree. Small is beautiful - which is also why comparing a return of 100% on a small balance versus a 20% return on a giant balance is apples vs oranges. For completeness, there would however be a special class of trades that you can do between $10mm to say $50mm though - picking up the detritus of much bigger fish. Anything requiring you to sign up as a counterparty to a bank cannot easily be done by an independent operator.
We think alike! http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1736799&highlight=feces#post1736799 Quote from RM: <b>NOV 26, 2007</b> Even if the bull market is over (and like I said last week, this is indeed the toppiest looking market I've seen in years), once we're done testing the August lows we'll almost certainly rally back up above 1520 (spooz), to form the right shoulder. Triple tops are FAR more common than the double variety. In the near term, the above scenario makes for great trading... However, in about 6-9 months from now, once the market has fallen and can't get up like a geezer in an early 90's TV commercial, we'd then be in for 3-5 years of pure feces trading. Think 2001-2004... Barf. Quote from RM: <b>Jan 4, 2008</b> My first paragraph above- Nailed it! <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1736799> Paragraph #2? For all of our sakes, pray that I was wrong about that part: Please Allah, NOT another four-year famine starting this year! Root canal with a rusty scalpel and a drunken veterinary-dental school dropout, a brutal ass-raping, a bullet to the head... Take your pick: Pretty much ANYTHING seems more appealing to me than an imminent repeat performance of 2001-2004!
What are RANGE BAR C. in comparison with classical Candlesticks? Do your indicators "sidewinder & Co." still work as impeccable as they used to? Thanks for sharing.