I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you failed to read the post where I said why I was behind in posting and my schedule for updating everyone. Kindly return the favor and give me the benefit of the doubt until you KNOW something about my intentions, or what I like or anything else that you speculate about.
No need to get defensive. let me ask you a question what is option skew and when did it first appear in the index markets, this will help you.
This post is obnoxious and without any knowledge or facts of what I've done, therefore to be classified as malicious. Proud of that, are you?
Blown-out from a 4% index move. NDX bull spreads at worse that 8:1 risk. You once remarked that all the "naysaying" in this thread was proof to you that you were on to something... yeah, this is the result. Honestly, I haven't responded to your blow-out because I don't relish anyone getting hit like that, but your hubristic "reinvented the wheel" dashboard and innovation BS necessitated a comment. I hope you learn from this and move on to more rational positions.
howard, you miss the main point he made..it did not work (and will be confirmed upon your results posting later this week) even his sarcastic (i can confirm he is this way even with his friends) postings were a result of equally arrogant points about what a great system you had/have and how we are missing something in the construction when in fact we were not missing a thing. i honestly believe you drew first blood and despite the sarcasm in many posts , there is pure experience and honesty in most posting you call as malicious.
Hi Howard, I've been reading this (long!) thread with interest. I confess my options knowledge is extremely basic. The critics' arguments about the inherent flaws in your method seem sound, although I freely acknowledge that I am in no position to judge. My own trading style involves standing aside most of the time and only trading the most obvious signals, so it is rather more straightforward than the strategy you are following. Nonetheless I have found the discussion here to be highly instructive. One thing I would say (and please take this in the spirit in which it is meant) is that your style sometimes lets you down, and obscures what merit there is in the content of your posts. Your replies are often rather intemperate, and sometimes so convoluted a person who was not giving you the benefit of the doubt might suspect you of deliberately attempting to obfuscate. I understand that you must have had a terrible time recently, but for the good of your thread I urge you to attempt to engage with your correspondents in an open and constructive manner. You must see now that many had your best interests at heart, and merely wished to use their superior knowledge and skill to help you. I hope you are able to recover from your recent disaster and learn from it. Good luck and thank you for starting an interesting thread and a lively and instructive debate.
Most here who have offered speculation have said I was either wiped out or had a terrible loss. Since you all are so handy with speculation, I think all here would be interested in you adding real numbers to your words. When all those wise men trying to protect me from myself have stepped up and made the estimate of my loss, then I'll publish the actual results.
I just did verify this, it took me several days of thinking and data analysis and I have been at it for decades...and I'm not dumb by most measures, and I still don't fully comprehend it... It changes a lot of how I will execute in the future. That this effect is so strong that it overwhelms the "general expectation" is still amazing to me. The fact that those smart Nobel guys (one of them invented option pricing IIRC), got smoked simply means that you never stop learning, and no matter how smart you think you are, you are subject to risk. It is easy to get cocky after a good run. Staying humble is the best attitude... Good trading and nice discussion. Why is everyone so touchy?. A little pricking around has always been fun!.