Because it's vega positive, and if the underlying goes too far up or down gamma starts eating your lunch. There's no reason to believe that the market is biased to favor sellers.
FV, all you have to do is look at the payoff diagram for an iron condor and ask yourself what determines the size of the area where the payout is positive.
12 JAN 2011 Trading Summary A roll was executed within Iron Condor (#15) by closing a PUT spread (#70) and opening another PUT spread (#78) closer to the NDX price.
Journal entry under Trials and Tribulations THIS ACCOUNT HAS NO AVAILABLE BUYING POWER This status came about because one of the spreads I opened yesterday had a leg adjacent to another spread in the same series. Their quarantined funds calculator thinks I was trying to form a butterfly rather than completing an Iron Condor. Software bug! I was trying to complete my roll so I called the trading desk and they executed it for me, including several tries at limit orders until a fill was obtained.
13 JAN 2010 Trading Plan The Dashboard above informs me as follows: Opportunity - Takeoffs are optional Spread #61 is unpaired. Opportunity to form an Iron Condor. Spread #75 is at 100% of it's capped profit but has only 0 days left until expiration. No opportunity to roll. Spread #69, #58, and #61 at more than 80% of capped profit. This is indicated by the cell in the Spread P/L column highlighted in yellow. Opportunity to roll. Jeopardy - Landings are mandatory Spread #76 is likely to be closed rather than left to expire. If I am unable to monitor this throughout the day, I would place an order to close this spread with a market order now, and let it execute when the market opens. If I am able to be available at market open I would watch a bit before trying to execute the close. The overnight futures show only small changes in the indexes are expected at open. When I was ready to close, I would try some limit orders to get the best price. If I am able to be available throughout the trading day and the short never gets ITM, then I will close the trade near the close of trading. Spread #75 is likely to expire as it currently shows 0% probability of touching. Other than spread #76, three spreads show slightly negative return with 35 days until expiration. No action required. New Opportunity New weeklies are available today. However no trades will be entered until quarantined funds are released for series where today is the last day of trading. Patience will be rewarded.
Howard You are certainly having a lot of fun. I confess to not understanding what you are doing. The concept is intriguing though. You certainly seem to have it mathematically figured out. Doing weeklies for eight months, I more just concentrated on putting on spreads so I did not get hit. Working on deviation more than anything. With VIX as a guide. I can see the monthlies would be a whole lot more complicated in a two month IC, and including rollovers as part of the way you operate. Somebody mentioned the graph for IC trades. Pray tell where do you get a freebie online option calculator to do that?
You don't need no stinkin' calculator... You just need Google. Here's what it looks like (lifted from some options site or another): However, that said, I think it's great to write smth like this in Excel and make it work exactly the way you want.
Just let the guy post. He may have something interesting to say. Just beware that permanently taking 40% risk, will eventually result in a 40%+ hit. To risk 40% requires a huge edge, which I do not yet see. To risk 40% requires a lot of cohodas.
This is a graph of the Iron Condor in my Dashboard expiring tomorrow (trading ends today). It is from the ThinkOrSwim desktop platform. I opened an account with them that remained unfunded for five months while I paper traded.