My rule of thumb is, if grandmothers are 'getting into the business'..... Do you have any 'inside information' Arthur?
I agree there's no mass retail mania (yet). But that by definition doesn't automatically shield an asset from a bear market. The reasoning "Gold is not a bubble yet, so it MUST BY DEFINITION go much higher soon" sounds like a wishful thinking of gold bulls to me.
Do I have any inside information? As a grandfather myself, I have been inside a grandmother or two. But no, I am one of those dumb retail traders who buys an ounce on a regular schedule whether it's going up or down. It is notable that higher quality and artistically attractive bullion like the Eagle and the Buffalo are in short supply, as from time-to-time are the more attactive one ounce bars like the Pamp Suisse. But you can buy all the ugly Krugs and Scotia rounds you want.
You are welcome to your opinion, like everyone else. As gold has very little intrinsic value, and the vast bulk of gold is held for purely speculative purposes, it is by definition speculatively-priced, so it is by definition in a bubble virtually all the time. When Rolex starts making Presidentes out of oil instead of gold, perhaps that will change. It has hit mass psychology - gold talk is *everywhere* - however it hasn't taken hold of mass psychology like it once did. Which makes it likely to be a soon-to-be-deflated bubble. Cheers.
We both know that gold doesn't HAVE to do anything. I'm merely pointing out that mass psychology is nowhere near bubble status as some would suggest. I think gold could go to 14,000 an oz. Like the Dow did. Will it? I dunno. As it is, its still fuckin cheap here adjusted for inflation.
By your definition, fine dining, fine cars, fine rugs, designer clothes, diamonds, luxury hotels, personal chefs, etc... are all bubbles.
Gold is a bubble at ANY price. Gold is useless (except for electric contacts, and a few rare industrial applications).
Question: If gold price tracked average inflation on a % basis (measured by a basket of the spot prices all the other popular/tradeable commodities), using data going back to the 1970's, what price should it be today?