How would the Markets react to an Israeli strike on Iran?

Here's an article i just read. Let's feed this fire a bit.

Tehran plans a nuclear weapons test before March 20, 2006 – the Iranian New Year, moves Shahab-3 missiles within striking range of Israel

January 22, 2006, 9:30 AM (GMT+02:00)

Reporting this, the dissident Foundation for Democracy in Iran, a US-based watch group, cites sources in the US and Iran. The FDI adds from Iran: on June 16, the high command of the Revolutionary Guards Air Force ordered Shahab-3 missile units to move mobile launchers every 24 hours instead of weekly. This is in view of a potential pre-emptive strike by the US or Israel.

Advance Shahab-3 units have been positioned in Kermanshah and Hamad within striking distance of Israel, reserve launchers moved to Esfahan and Fars.

The missile units were told to change positions “in a radius of 30-35 kilometers” and only at night.

DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources add: FDI reporting has a reputation for credibility. Western and Israeli intelligence have known for more than six months that Iran’s nuclear program has reached the capability of being able to carry out a nuclear explosion, albeit underground. It would probably be staged in a desert or mountain region and activated by a distant control center. Tehran would aim at confronting the Americans, Europeans and Israelis with an irreversible situation.

At the same time, an explosion of this sort would indicate that Iran is not yet able to produce a nuclear bomb that can be delivered by airplane or a warhead adapted to a missile. The stage Iran has reached is comparable to Pakistan’s when it conducted its first nuclear tests in the nineties and North Korea’s in 2001. All the same, an Iranian underground nuclear blast, which will most probably be attempted on March 22, would turn around the strategic position of all the parties concerned and the Middle East as whole.

The question now is: will the United States, Israel or both deliver a pre-emptive strike ahead of the Iranian underground test - or later? Or will Washington alternatively use the event to bring the UN Security Council round to economic sanctions? Tehran is already organizing to withstand economic penalties. For Israel, the timing is getting tight in view of its general election on March 28. Acting prime minister Ehud Olmert must take into account that a ruling party which allows an Iranian nuclear explosion to take place six days before the poll would draw painful punishment from the voter.


Trying to be objective about this situation, I think we see oil go above $70 a barrel (what an out on a limb prediction, heh?) This situation could be very similar to the period prior to the second Iraq war where the markets stagnated with a bearish bias. Each piece of good news (a resolution to the problem) brought about a small rally.

 

Bullshit, Where is the link to this?

 

were NEVER leaving...


The problem is that Europe needs to get off of Iranian oil (there's enough oil in Iraq for both the U.S. and Europe btw.)

 

http://debka.com/

 

Hahaaaaa, wait that's hhhhaaaa Times * 10

What makes you think Iraqis will give out their oils to west?
They have 10 times more hate toward US than anything comes from Iran

 

Hi Nana, I pulled the story from Debka.com. I'm certainly not saying it's true or false. Take it for what it's worth. However, I am a skeptic of everything I read or hear, be it CNN, CNBC or Reuters. (although I must admit to being a very big fan of the BBC, great coverage)

Anyways, don't shoot the messenger. I'm just posting something that fit with the theme of the thread. In this day and age and the "slants", it's hard to take anything at face value anymore.

 

Wait till we get through with your country

 

I don't think the Iraqis hate the US. They is a rdiculous comment.

 

What makes you say that? I didn't say anything bad except revealing some fact about today's Iraq (not past Iraq)

 

well wouldnt it push oil up to over 100 dollars. That would surely hurt asian countries like china and japan.