How would the Markets react to an Israeli strike on Iran?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by mahram, Jan 20, 2006.

  1. FatMax

    FatMax

    Iran does not need to build a nuclear bomb that can be delivered via missile. Simply having processed radioactive material available to be distributed to terrorists is enough of a threat to make this situation spiral out of control
     
    #21     Jan 21, 2006
  2. Sam123

    Sam123 Guest

    Well, Pakistan is 1 Musharraf away from being a much bigger threat, in that respect. I worry more about what happens to him, than what Iran does. Even with Musharraf in power, Pakistan nuclear scientists managed to rub elbows with the Taliban –the closest thing to an organized Islamist government.

    The good news is that nuclear material is very easy to detect today, thanks to technology inherited from the Cold War. The concern that nuclear material could be smuggled by foot, truck, boat, or whatever, is as old as the Cold War.
     
    #22     Jan 21, 2006
  3. plugger

    plugger

    I wonder if the Iraqi reserves are as large as initially thought. A news story on Friday stated that Kuwait's reserves are half of what they officially announced. Kuwait has been producing from oil deposits which are common to Kuwait and Iraq (they sit under both countries). It was one of Saddam's grievances and reasons for invading Kuwait. Just some food for thought.
     
    #23     Jan 21, 2006
  4. when israel attacked iraq's nuclear power plants that was really unexpected. The markets during that time had no warning. Thats b/c it involved a relativly small fighter group. when we got warning about persian gulf wars, it involved a military buildup of 100's thousands of men and materials. So that was predicted. But it would fun to know if the market would react before an isreali strike or not. If oil suddenly jumped 25 dollars in 1 minute then that would be a big sign. But lets say if it does happen isreal attacks. Then would equities markets in general be a sell or a buy?
     
    #24     Jan 21, 2006
  5. well from my perspective iraqi reserves are a moot point. They arent even producing oil at prewar levels and at sustainable levels. When iraq starts producing again, then we can start talking about iraqi reserves. Right now, the biggest factor for iraq to effect the oil markets or not, if they can sustain production and get back to prewar levels. Then could have a trillion barrels of reserves, but if they cant even get 100K out of iraq safely,effiently, and dependably, then it doesnt matter.

    QUOTE]Quote from plugger:

    I wonder if the Iraqi reserves are as large as initially thought. A news story on Friday stated that Kuwait's reserves are half of what they officially announced. Kuwait has been producing from oil deposits which are common to Kuwait and Iraq (they sit under both countries). It was one of Saddam's grievances and reasons for invading Kuwait. Just some food for thought. [/QUOTE]
     
    #25     Jan 22, 2006
  6. cnms2

    cnms2

    Does anybody have links with our oil consumption breakdown in % (automibiles, etc.), and our oil imports breakdown in % (how much imported, and breakdown per countries)?
     
    #26     Jan 22, 2006
  7. Iran is poised to fall from within. Once plan is in place we move in. The government falls. Market rallies.

    World goes from doom and gloom to a great place to live in a few days.

    People who say otherwise watch too much network news.

    John
     
    #27     Jan 22, 2006
  8. toc

    toc

    The attack on Iranian nuke facillities is not happening anytime soon because Iranians are much far from accomplishing the bomb and let alone reduce it to a size where they can load it up on missile or plane for delivery. All the threat talk by Iranians is brinkman type political play to drum up the oil prices.
     
    #28     Jan 22, 2006
  9. All this talk by their leader is to strengthen his position at home and to intimate his enemies inside of the country. He survived an assassination attempt two months ago by the skin of his teeth. Odds are he will not survive the next one.

    There is not going to be an attack on faculties. Their leader is going to be taken out and their government will fall.



    John
     
    #29     Jan 22, 2006
  10. This I doubt because the Iranian "leader" is a figurehead placed by the Mullahs.

    He is a loose cannon by design.

    Iran is playing the nuclear card because the US is right next door and sunni Iraq is a bitter historical enemy. Remember, Iran lost a million men in the Iraq-Iran war in the 1980s. That's a big number given thier population of 60 million.

    And now France is falling in line. Chirac said if you force us, we will indeed use nukes. That is a message to not just Iran, but rogue actors in the Muslim world, and Islamist militancy.

    Iran knows the US won't tolerate it going nuclear. They will leverage the nuclear card to gain security and in the end, negotiate themselves out of it.

    If not, the US, not Israel, will take out thier nuclear facitlities. They know this. They know Bush & Co. doesn't fuck around. Not only has this current administration demonstrated a willingness to act unilaterally, it has a leader which speaks fundamentalism. "God has commanded me blah blah blah"
     
    #30     Jan 22, 2006