How would the Markets react to an Israeli strike on Iran?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by mahram, Jan 20, 2006.

  1. I was wondering how the stockmarket and others would react if isreal made an surprise attack on iran's nuclear facilities? Yeah it would go down alot and oil would go up, but is their any precedent for it? Like would it react something to the iraq war where it went down for a bit but then went up or would it be something like world war I and II where it went generally down and sideways except for military related issues. The reason is that Ive been hearing brokers and then larry kudlow speaking of this rumour. That isreal had told us officials that they would not tolerate iran having nuclear weopens whatsoever. And they would strike unilatiraily.
     
  2. If anything serious with Iran happens, just buy gold or gold stocks.

    Defense stocks like Boeing would go rise, too.
     
  3. Iran doesn't have a weapon, yet. I imagine it's an 80% probability they hit the enrichment-sites, reactors, etc., and I'd think that after the initial small drop it would be bullish.
     
  4. DrChaos

    DrChaos

    I think the likely response would be an Iranian missile attack on Israel's reactor.

    In the end, everybody's pissed but a 75% chance nothing catastrophic happens---at least right away.

    The processing buildings near the Israeli reactor would likely be destroyed but the containment dome (and the radioactive fuel) would probably not be broken. You need a hard core bunker buster or a tactical nuke to open those.

    Scenarios:

    1) So, if there's an Israeli attack and mild Iranian response---and no oil facilities are damaged---I think markets make a relief rally.

    2) If on the other hand, the Iranians convince the Shiites in Iraq to start attacking the US troops in mass and the US makes a shooting retreat like Saigon 1975----mid term moderate bear market as US power and prestige is seriously damaged for a long time as it was in Vietnam.

    3) Second worst case scenario: Iran sends gas for real into Tel-Aviv: their missiles are much better than those pathetic Scuds. Quick sharp large drop, recovery after 6 months if less than 3 nukes used by Israel against military targets only.

    4) Worst case scenario: Iran already has nukes, namely those 10 Ukrainian cruise missiles, and uses them. Israel is obliterated, and US prepares for invasion. Russia moves tactical nukes into Iran and signs defense treaty.
    Exchanges shut for years.


    The longer term problem though is that after an Israeli attack Iran would still be able to make a nuclear weapon in 3-5 years (facilities are too deep to be destroyed without large nukes) and would then be even more likely to use it.

    The hope is that a more sane president in Iran comes to power, but after an attack all of them will be totally anti-Israel. Even the moderate educated segment of Iran who hate the theocrats is very much in favor of their nuclear program, and I bet most of them know that it's for bombs eventually.

    Iran's idea is to have the capability for a quick switch to making weapons whenever they want.

    I.e. they will make all the plans and calculations now, build all the facilities and technology, and just not make one so as to be technically within the bounds of the treaty. And then when people start to complain they'll pull a Kim-Jong Evil and say, "Oh screw that. we lied, we have lots of bombs now."
     
  5. I was doing research on what happened during the The Yom Kippur,6 day war,and The Osirak Raid in iraq where isreal attacked an nuclear reactor. That was in 82 I belieave. Thats what I think, unless it destabilizes the entire region. And how iran would respond. And how isreal would respond back. Im sure if iran fired missles. Isreal would destroy iran's oil infrastructure.

     
  6. drchaos if nuclear weopens were used anywhere in the middle east, by anyone, I dont think the markets would recover for years. The downturn would make the depression look like a cakewalk.

    QUOTE]Quote from DrChaos:

    I think the likely response would be an Iranian missile attack on Israel's reactor.

    In the end, everybody's pissed but a 75% chance nothing catastrophic happens---at least right away.

    The processing buildings near the Israeli reactor would likely be destroyed but the containment dome (and the radioactive fuel) would probably not be broken. You need a hard core bunker buster or a tactical nuke to open those.

    Scenarios:

    1) So, if there's an Israeli attack and mild Iranian response---and no oil facilities are damaged---I think markets make a relief rally.

    2) If on the other hand, the Iranians convince the Shiites in Iraq to start attacking the US troops in mass and the US makes a shooting retreat like Saigon 1975----mid term moderate bear market as US power and prestige is seriously damaged for a long time as it was in Vietnam.

    3) Second worst case scenario: Iran sends gas for real into Tel-Aviv: their missiles are much better than those pathetic Scuds. Quick sharp large drop, recovery after 6 months if less than 3 nukes used by Israel against military targets only.

    4) Worst case scenario: Iran already has nukes, namely those 10 Ukrainian cruise missiles, and uses them. Israel is obliterated, and US prepares for invasion. Russia moves tactical nukes into Iran and signs defense treaty.
    Exchanges shut for years.


    The longer term problem though is that after an Israeli attack Iran would still be able to make a nuclear weapon in 3-5 years (facilities are too deep to be destroyed without large nukes) and would then be even more likely to use it.

    The hope is that a more sane president in Iran comes to power, but after an attack all of them will be totally anti-Israel. Even the moderate educated segment of Iran who hate the theocrats is very much in favor of their nuclear program, and I bet most of them know that it's for bombs eventually.

    Iran's idea is to have the capability for a quick switch to making weapons whenever they want.

    I.e. they will make all the plans and calculations now, build all the facilities and technology, and just not make one so as to be technically within the bounds of the treaty. And then when people start to complain they'll pull a Kim-Jong Evil and say, "Oh screw that. we lied, we have lots of bombs now."
    [/QUOTE]
     
  7. So all the German prime-ministers were anti-american? And all the Japanese prime-ministers were anti-american too? As for exchanges shut for years - then the banks will be shut for years too. Every asset is going to lose its value. Nothing is relevant any more.
     
  8. Before or after the surrender?
     
  9. no divergent talk into anti american, this is a pure markets reactions thread. I remember back in the 80's the markets fluated alot during the isereali strikes

     
  10. The markets would make a large move most likely up but possibly down in the range of 20-25 sp points at least
    5:1 odds on upside IF Israel is involved alone and US stays the fuck out and cannot fuck it up....

    ....after a large up move it may tank for weeks and puke out 100 sp point to the downside depending on oil prices...

    ....but it could happen as the exact reverse.... :)
     
    #10     Jan 21, 2006