How would future economies work when 90% of jobs are replaced by robots/computers?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by prc117f, Jan 5, 2017.

  1. Overnight

    Overnight

    EXACTLY!
     
    #71     Jan 13, 2017
  2. Humpy

    Humpy

    #72     Jan 14, 2017
  3. southall

    southall

    You didnt read post #22 by user 'big mac' on this thread then?

    Here it is:

     
    #73     Jan 14, 2017
  4. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    As robots take jobs, Europeans mull free money for all

    By JOHN LEICESTER, Associated Press
    1 Hour Ago
    The Associated Press

    PARIS (AP) — I am, therefore I'm paid.

    The radical notion that governments should hand out free money to everyone — rich and poor, those who work and those who don't — is slowly but surely gaining ground in Europe. Yes, you read that right: a guaranteed monthly living allowance, no strings attached.

    In France, two of the seven candidates vying to represent the ruling Socialist Party in this year's presidential election are promising modest but regular stipends to all French adults. A limited test is already underway in Finland, with other experiments planned elsewhere, including in the United States.

    Called "universal income" by some, "universal basic income" or just "basic income" by others, the idea has been floated in various guises since at least the mid-19th century. After decades on the fringes of intellectual debate, it became more mainstream in 2016, with Switzerland holding a referendum — and overwhelmingly rejecting — a proposed basic income of around $2,500 per month.

    "An incredible year," says Philippe Van Parijs, a founder of the Basic Income Earth Network that lobbies for such payments. "There has been more written and said on basic income than in the whole history of mankind."

    But before you write a resignation letter to your boss in anticipation of never needing to work again, be warned: there are multiple questions, including how to finance such schemes. Here is a look at the issues:

    WHY THE MOUNTING INTEREST?

    In a word, robots. With automated systems and machines increasingly replacing human workers, France could lose 3 million jobs by 2025, says Benoit Hamon, a former education minister campaigning for the French presidency on a promise of gradually introducing no-strings-attached payments for all. As work becomes scarcer, a modest but regular guaranteed income would stop people from fearing the future and free up their time for family, the needy and themselves, he argues.

    It could also encourage people to take risks, start businesses and try new activities without the risk of losing welfare benefits.

    The other pro-basic income candidate for the Socialist Party presidential ticket is outsider Jean-Luc Bennahmias. Like Hamon, the former European Parliament lawmaker argues that it is pointless to expect the return of economic boom times, with jobs for all.

    "Growth at two, three, four or five percent in western countries: it's finished," he said in a televised debate last week. "We have to speak the truth."

    Outside research backs up their arguments. An Oxford University study in 2015 estimated nearly half of the American workforce is at risk of automation.

    PUT TO THE TEST

    Finland's small-scale, two-year trial that started Jan. 1 aims to answer a frequent question from basic income opponents: With a guaranteed 560 euros ($600) a month, will the 2,000 human guinea pigs — drawn randomly from Finland's unemployed — just laze around?

    Budget constraints and opposition from multiple quarters stymied ambitions for a broader test, says Olli Kangas from the Finnish government agency KELA, which is responsible for the country's social benefits.

    "It's a pretty watered down version," he said in a telephone interview. "We had to make a huge number of compromises."

    Still, he argues that such studies are essential in helping societies prepare for changed labor markets of the future.

    "I'm not saying that basic income is the solution," he said. "I'm just saying that it's a solution that we have to think about."

    In the Netherlands, the city of Utrecht this year plans to trial no-strings welfare payments that will also allow test groups to work on the side if they choose — again, in part, to study the effect on their motivation to find work.

    To prepare for "a world where technology replaces existing jobs and basic income becomes necessary," Silicon Valley startup financier Y Combinator says it plans a pilot study in Oakland, California, paying recipients an unconditional income because "we want to see how people experience that freedom."

    THE COST

    Obviously, expensive. Hamon proposes the gradual introduction of basic income schemes in France, starting with 600 euros ($640) per month for the nation's poor and 18-25-year-olds before scaling up payments to 750 euros ($800) for all adults — for a total estimated annual cost of 400 billion euros ($425 billion).

    Part of the cost could be financed by taxing robots — goods and services produced by automated systems and machines, he says. Opponents argue that doing so would simply prompt companies to move their robots elsewhere, out of reach of French tax collectors.

    A 2016 study by the French Senate said a basic income scheme could be easier, and therefore less costly, to manage than France's current welfare system. The stigma often associated with state handouts would also disappear, because both rich and poor would get the payments.

    Paying everyone 500 to 1,000 euros ($530-$1,100) per month would cost 300 billion ($320 billion) to 700 billion ($745 billion) euros per year, requiring new taxes, the Senate report said. It recommended starting with three-year pilot schemes, with 100 million to 150 million euros required annually for trials involving 20,000-30,000 people.

    THE CONS

    Costs aside, opponents argue that guaranteed incomes would promote laziness and devalue the concept of work. Hamon's opponents for the Socialist presidential ticket dispute as false his argument that jobs for humans are growing scarcer.

    Ultimately, to see the light of day, basic income schemes will need political champions, said Van Parijs.

    "We need radical ideas as targets and then we need clever tinkering to move in that direction," he said.
     
    #74     Jan 16, 2017
  5. vanzandt

    vanzandt

  6. Llxa

    Llxa

    With robots and AI working in everything, production efficiency will be extremely high we will be at full potential economy, Y' with everything in abundance. And since we know that it's increase in production efficiency that drives down cost so if everything is 100% efficient, then there is no cost. In fact everything is so in abundance due to extremely high efficiency, everything will be FREE!!! There will be no wages since robots don't require wages, breaks or meal or anything. Only thing they do require is energy which by that time will be all renewable energy in fact everything will be recyclable, renewable, reusable so the cost will be very nominal, so there is no cost in total. Since there is no cost, then there is nothing to recover so need to charge anybody anything. You just take however much you want, more will be coming.

    True communism!! From each other's ability to each other's needs!! Everyday will be a vacation and you just make love all day until the end of your life!! :)
     
    #76     Feb 13, 2017
  7. Simples

    Simples

    Yes, this is the likely and logical scenario based on prior human history and conditioning.
     
    #77     Feb 13, 2017
  8. based on human history it will be more like make war, especially since people won't have anything else on their hands.
     
    #78     Feb 16, 2017
  9. ironchef

    ironchef

    Not a problem, we will let all the robots do all of our fighting. War will become a spectator sport.
     
    #79     Feb 16, 2017
    trade4succes likes this.
  10. java

    java

    Yeah, but who will be watching whom?
     
    #80     Feb 16, 2017