Im kind of heavy on commodity names, planning for more on a fiat currency crash. I liked the commodity story before the credit crisis, and I like it even more after since in the long run I believe we are stuck playing the inflation card. I cant imagine any currency being THAT much safer than another. I think there will be some heavy fluctuations but my longer run bet is it all slides relative to stuff and the extractors/producers of stuff. Also doubling down on my education.
That will be an interesting day when congress says "ok, you know all that money you have been contributing for the last 40 years of your life out of your paycheck, yeah well, heh heh funny thing happened with that......" Political suicide for whichever party does it. This country is in way over its head....
there is a 2 year lag between money flow spikes and inflation, so we have about 9 months before the 6 months that the market generally discounts ahead. we could easily have a beggar thy neighbor devaulation period, and it's not so much whether the dollar eventually plunges, which is all but guaranteed. it could plunge vs the euro, vs asian currencies, or maybe...it just plunges against hard assets if everyone chooses to competitively devalue in a race to the bottom (like the 70s). then of course come the price controls, shortages, etc given that at the same time the world is being flooded with money, production of commodities is plunging due to low prices. the government will then blame everyone but themselves - speculators (ie people who want to protect themselves against a plunging dollar), producers for manipulating prices (companies in the food and commodities business who actually produce something ie exxon), etc, anyone and anything but the source of the problems - the government and their printing press, spending, interest rates, wasteful spending, and raping and pillaging of the taxpayer so they can buy votes with social programs. maybe they blame the people who lent us the money, saying they should've known better (like they are blaming banks rather than their backing of fannie freddie and artificially low interest rates). this movie has been shown before in various forms, many times in history.
I'm not sure how you guys get to a lower (or much lower) EUR/USD rate unless you see coordinated intervention.
The Europeans are looking more and more like the odd ones out. I think shorting EUR is not bad risk/reward here, as I don't expect them to be able to hold out much longer.
I dunno, mate. History is full of EUR/USD upswings that go way, way beyond rational spot moves. I don't know that i'd feel comfortable shorting that pair until there is an obvious turn.
Hope those of you who went short EUR/USD got out in time. Nothing is going to stop this truck. Not unless the ECB comes around to QE. This could very well be the last hurrah of the euro.
Indeed. Looks like the QE train is well underway already this morning. Dollar uniformly trashed 1.5-2% against every major currency in just the past hour!