"Live is too short" IMO to worry about low probability events and if the big one should come to pass ... well life is over.
2008 was great year, but my style of counter trend trading is about using insurance and keep plugging away. On the Monthlies had divergences. I bought my core of stocks in 2009 and sold up to 95% 4 days before the recent all time highs. That was a bit of luck. My Grandfather did very well during depression and taught me well. Dumped all my real estate 4 years ago, if depression comes, money is king and will buy real estate towards end of depression. My skills gotten better at hedging open profits and counter trend. Dumped all my gold coins when gold reached new highs. Switched all monies out of stocks to options and long term commodities. Reduced scalping 50% for now, risk too great, tougher to get filled at full quantity. Automation helps much, no human intervention.
It will take a few more rounds of tightening by the Fed to get the herd heading to the exits. With so much money in index funds, the waves of selling will be unrelenting I imagine. I don’t see a 1930’s-type depression reappearing. After 2008, it’s clear the Fed will buy up everything, either directly or through proxies, to prevent a true panic bottom. I’m thinking stagnation and a lost decade or two similar to what Japan saw after its bubble popped.
Rising interest rates has little if anything to do with the market crashing. Its just that having no interest rates for a long time has created the mother of all bubbles. Well that and printing currency like a drunken sailor.
%% Good points on the handgun -protection; WEF can speak for themselves\ they cant even force all the airline pilots + health care workers to get shot with a vaccine/LOL . Take profits very now + then, grasshopper.
In 2008 I remember Proshares started their first -2X Sector ETF -- SKF 2X Short the XLF. I was up over $75K on it until the government decided to institute a shorting ban on the TBTF institutions and I sold but I did pretty good. I had a friend who worked at Barclay's PWM division and he told me to get out in Jan 2008 because their top credit analyst said the CDS' were skyrocketing on the global banks. He was spot on.
Same as the last three "end of the world events" go short. Probably several times. Trading those things is never pretty. Bit like making hot dogs.