SethArb: Do you trade eCBOT Gold exclusively, now that is farely liquid? Is COMEX Gold only pit traded. I am on TradeStation and Man and have access to any market. Which is the most liquid on the screen? ZG 100 OZ eCBOT appears to be. I have been trading the GLD ETF but decided I am missing out on the overnight shooting gallery!
Exactly right, I have been fading this move and its working nicely. Now its time for me to give it a break before it blows me up. New york brings it in on both extremes like you said, reliable for now. The volatility is not for the faint of heart though.
i have no money or access to comex/cbot to trade.. but if i did I'd be straddling gold.. given its weekly (if not daily) volatalities u can make hell of a lot of money.. also, during market open hours, mon-to-friday, the covariance of daily movements is unbelievable.. for example, at 1-2am london time, it ALWAYS shoots up for some reason, same at 8am. if u look at who wakes up, who goes sleep (e.g. sydney-London etc.) they make the same trades daily from open to close. having said that - the 7 month month short bull and 4 years strength seems to be the end.. watch for gold heading to below 600.. and only maybeeeee it'll come bak to 700+ in 2-3 years.
I gotta say bro, there are far far far too many guys standing on the same side of the plank as you are now. We went from utter disinterest 6 months ago to over the top complacency in a helluva rush. That 200 pt move brought on alot of guys buying in at ugly prices. That was a true parabola, not to say that it cannot or will not move significantly higher down the road, but I'd be damn nimble if I were leveraging up on the metal and didn't have some cushion to play with. Be well.
6 months? I've been in Au for over 4 years and Ag for over 3. The move since Sep 05 has been real nice for me; given me a very nice cushion. But the state of the USD/debt plus a ton of other things point to higher and higher well within 3 years imho. I hear what you say about me and a load of others on this side of the plank, and you have a valid point, but gold/usd and all the other currencies, debt, chindia yadda yadda yadda make me stay with a trend which has served me well for 4yrs+ This ain't just TA, it's FA too.
I was shooting from the hip there. afaiac all the above is important but the other (I believe) significant factor is that I'm not at all sure there are too many people over on my side of the plank. My bullion dealer has noticed a slight tick up in business but nothing dramatic and I hear similar about other dealers. I suspect I'm preaching to the choir here but... when I mention PMs to family and friends nobody is aware of economic issues or the relationship between banknotes and PMs, certainly none are buying PMs here. As a comparison, remember the tech stocks/nasdaq buzz from 1999? I'm sure you do. The US Fed now openly wants the USD devalued by 25%. The general populace is utterly oblivious to what is happening here. I am told by old timers that there is no fever like gold fever. Come over to my side of the plank, it's quiet and relaxed here and we could use the company.