How to use the COT to figure US dollar market sentiment?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by grimsavage, Nov 10, 2019 at 8:19 PM.

  1. Im trying to implement the commitment of traders report into my trading and was wondering when trying to follow and compare the usd to say jpy or aud which exchange title is being compared to these other currencies?

    The dollar index?

    Treasury bonds?

    2 year treasury bond?

    10 year treasury bond?

    or are they already being compared to the usd already?
     
  2. Overnight

    Overnight

    The COT is a lagging indicator. The report you get is days old. It reflects nothing but a general trend over a longer time-frame. Basically, a moving average of supply vs. demand, or sentiment vs. outlook.
     
  3. I know nothing is as present as price but that didn't answer my question thanks anyways
     
  4. Overnight

    Overnight


    Sorry, since you posted this in the commodity futures section, I assumed you meant the COT from the CME. My assumption was wrong. Carry on then.
     
  5. Real Money

    Real Money

    You might need to take a much more pointed route for your inquiry. I suggest that you link the report you are trying to use, or even quote it, and then very clearly state your question. As it is, few people are going to be able to answer this question...

    No idea, and probably nobody else does either. Never heard a trader use the words I underlined in a comparison to any currency.

    There are so many reports from the CFTC it is overwhelming just thinking about digging into them without some kind of guidance.
     
  6. COT is utterly useless. Has zero bearing on future prices. It is a days old report that shows positioning in futures. Even the positioning shown at Oanda is more meaningful than COT. COT is received by cftc on Wednesday morning for positioning on Tuesday and released on Fridays. A stupid report that never, even in the past, had any bearing on anything. Drop this pursuit and look at other low hanging fruit.

     
    gaussian likes this.
  7. gaussian

    gaussian

    I agree, but I will add it's potentially useful in the context of other measures. Trading purely off the COT is not worth it. If you're holding a spread for 3-4 months it might be interesting to see the change in COT over time during your spread to confirm seasonal trends or something.
     
  8. Cannon_Trading

    Cannon_Trading Sponsor

    From my colleague, John Thorpe:
    A position trader can benefit from weekly changes in the COT report. As others had suggested in your thread, of course this information may be folly to follow if you are a short term trader. Many long term trends have been known to reveal their turns through the COT report. It's important first to understand the data and it's limitations. There are people smarter than I that have written extensively on the topic, you can begin here.
    also search for Jack Schwager, a prolific writer over the decades on Fundamental and Technical analysis of the Futures markers and there is a gent who has a blog named Steven Breise I do believe. that has spent energy on the COT report.
     
  9. So does an MA(x), fill in your personal x.