Discussion in 'Trading' started by JM1987, Mar 11, 2011.
I know its sounds like a dick move, but how do we trade this?
Sell reinsurers and buy yen but the moves have happened, swiss re was off 6% on european open. These insurers will sell some US investments like treasuries and buy yen to pay the liabilities, gov may do the same.
You could possibly buy industrial vehicle makers, there's going to be a lot of bulldozers needed to shift that tsunami mud and debris
If any of their car manufacturing capability has been disrupted may be a boost for US competitors.
Failing that get long Quiksilver surfboards
yeah i already have ACE and XL shorts lined up, looking for a few more plays though as I only trade NYSE intraday
Industrial equiment is an interesting idea though, thanks
Careful about selling strong rally back on CL and ES
sell JPY and JGBs
Government will spend, BoJ will print
There is no other option
fiscal deficit reduction plans go out of the window
Rally in JPY and JGBs may last for a couple of days but to issue more JGBs Japan may need foreign buyers for a change, so that will mean higher yields to compensate for risk
Something like this will caus the markets to sell off again on the open and it should hit bottom before lunch and after we hear more news perhaps a little momentum back to the upside depending on how bad this affects Hawaii and the West coast
normally of course a fall in the Nikkei would see JPY and JGB buying as a safe haven...and this was the immediate market reaction it seems
I guess algo trading systems that kick in based on the standard correlations may have triggered the initial rally in JGBs.
But this is a situation when usual correlations can break down, once the debt raising ramifications are understood
i.e. triple weakness stocks bonds and currency all sell off
I sold some put options on the SPY a few minutes ago.
Did we see a short squeeze in the first 20 mins of SPY/ES action? I have a feeling a lot of people sold short the open because of the quake.
Separate names with a comma.