the problem with fundamentals is you never know how much is already priced in. It gets to be like a chess game where the market is moving 3 moves ahead of the news. nice trade selling on that big candle, congratulations most of the money is made in just a few minutes, gotta be quick when it hands you an unexpected pleasant surprise, I know of no way to anticipate such a strong quick move. You had to be there.
Oldtime, that quick move was almost (85%) guaranteed. A resolution was inevitable. That's why I went long at the end of the day Friday. The big move was either going to be the result of a weekend decision or decision a short time later. Either way, EUR/USD was headed higher.
And don't go long right now. When Europe wakes up, the EUR/USD will be dragged down to atleast the middle of that large candle. My highly educated guess!
yes, but you knew that, I knew that, everybody knew that. So how did you know it wasn't already priced in? in forex, good news is not bullish, it's just news
... despite the fact that "you know it", you're still short. Does that answer your question? If its already priced in, nothing happens, or it goes against you a little. So, you get out of the trade and move on. Which leaves you with either a little loss or a big gain. If we were to say the chances of it being priced in already is 50%, you are still way ahead on average since the payoff if it is not priced in is much greater than the little loss if it is priced in.
I knew there would be a resolution, I didn't know how the market would react I am never wrong, but often early at anyrate, congratulations on a good trade otherwise, it is poor form to rub it in the face of guys on the other side I don't predict what the market is going to do, I just tell you what I am doing, for conversation and fun, and hopefully profit
Sorry about that. I don't mean to rub it in. However, yes, I am rather pleased with myself that I have recovered and moved beyond all of my accumulated losses over the last two+ years thanks to this EUR/USD pair. I began my contribution with the point that I don't understand why people are going short. I recall having this argument with Bwolinsky over a year ago who thought the EUR/USD would be at about 80 US cents by now. It simply isn't in the world's best interest to let the EURO collapse. It will be propped up.
the concern for the EU is to keep it below 1.40 anything below 1.24 and the dollar starts suffering from demand destruction for a guy like me who averages down, that 1.24 to 1.40 range is the range I must be able to afford. Don't really matter to me if I am long or short. I also have made a lot of money recently on that pair from the long side. I've been long for almost three months. This last trade is the first time from the short side in a while, and most of that decision had to do with finally getting long AUD.USD. I never like to be long aud and eur at the same time.
I think you're very right, and every trade I make has similar boundaries for my limit and stop. Long again at 1.30265