Let's say I predicted that there'd be no war between North Korea and South Korea / USA and it was just hype before. How would I have profited from this prediction? Shorting defense stocks might not be the trade, as there was other conflicts happening at the time.
Buy the rumor sell the news that is one way, another is to wait for the news to come out and then trade in the market direction. Try not to predict, just trade what you see!
news prediction does not matter, even correct one what matters is prediction on which market and how will be affected
exactly before predicting anything one should find first the corresponding market(s) and work with them for example where u going to put stop if market will go against you etc etc not the other way around doing that you will soon realize how irrelevant are predictions at all
If you ask me, that's a risky and silly game to bet and predict hype news between real news. It would seem like the quick answer would be to sell options/volatility. But you need to first establish your time frame end game goal, Do you predict/trade/bet...daily, or weekly, or monthly, or a year from now? It's not enough to just wait and and sit and see casually what the market will do if and when, That's like saying The Yankees will win a baseball game. So what. of Course they will...but when, the very next one...or 5 from now, or 9...? If you can't generally, loosely, realistically answer this...you shouldn't be trading.
If you predicted that war was NOT imminent, you'd short a safe-haven like gold. That is the gist of it.