Hi Austin. In order to quatify this do you have it written in to excel or some backtesting program? I recall you mentioned monte carlo leasing for a year. I am find just through written notes that my winning trades occurs more often in 2-3 candles., when going for 2-1 R to R.
Couldnt agree more sosa, it takes years and years of detailed observation and recording ... no room for generalisation in this game... and let us not forget the golden rule " If you cannot achieve something in trading, it usually means that you are not yet capable of understanding what is obvious to some other traders" Always trade with an open mind. Back to trading the open. That the open is different to the next trading frame is obvious and so a capable trader is not going to approach trading it in the same manner. The key lies in the pre open. Watch the price perform against trades on the bid and trades on the ask. Accumlate these figures and read the story that they are telling you. This morning the ES topped at 72.25 at 09.08/9/10am: It drifted off slightly and returned to 72.25 at 9.22/23 but during this period of reasonable volume, trades at the bid outnumbered those on the ask by more than 2k. This sucker is weak wants to open the first leg going south and so I sold the ES. Now there are records that you need to keep in order to track the behaviour of the pre open, but in essense that is how I handle it. I hope this has been of some help. Goodluck
For those who asked, I keep handwritten records of trades only because I'm a technology idiot... cannot operate Excel, Photoshop, even my camera cellphone is a mystery to me. Someday I'll learn all of the above, but haven't done so yet * I kept the records this year to see just where my money is made or lost. If I skip trading new entries from noon ~ 1:00pm EST, it costs me nothing in the end AND the emotional break from price action gives me sharp focus for the afternoon period. Sort of like trading two entirely different sessions with a neede break in between. The last 30min of trading is skewed heavily toward ER, same as first 30min. The ER commonly makes surge moves of 3pts to 5pts whereas the ES won't break a 2pt range at the same time. I tend to take more entry attempts in ER solely because of its much greater dynamics than ES. That said, ES is smoother trading when volatility and volume are normal to high. When markets are dull, most of my gains come from the ER. When markets are active to wild, I tend to make equal gains across both symbols and some days greater gains in ES when ER gets real wild. There is a difference in symbols behavior, therefore a difference in how-when to trade them. I pretty much leave ES alone in first and last 30min periods, but frequently trade the ER in one or both stretches.
Must admit to keeping handwritten records myself. There is something about writing by hand that brings me closer to the subject. I find my relationship with computors to be abstract If you think of the open on the ES as a huge mass of water suddenly trying to enter a pipe. It swirls this way and that way until it finally finds a sense of direction and its flow begins to settle. The close is like pulling the plug from under a huge mass of water ... same thing in reverse. Personally, I like the open as it sets me up for the morning.
When morning trade setups are clear, I take them. If it requires more than five seconds to make a decision, I pass. This morning for example had the ES on clear buy signal off its daily pivot point (per the method I use) while ER was neutral to confused in its chart. I bought the ES at 1378.75 and trailed out on a stop at 1381.75 Meanwhile, the ER remained neutral to bearish and even gave a sell signal near 768. I passed on that due to ES and ER in conflict of bias in their charts. Maybe the ER drops to 760 and I miss the 8pt ride. More than likely, both will turn bullish or bearish confirmed in unison and give clearer signals later in the session. My own rule of thumb? If the opening bell = early morning trade setup is instantly clear at a glance, I take it. If it requires any amount of deciphering, I pass. Years of painful experience about jumping the gun have taught me that good trades always begin as clear signals on the chart... especially in the morning period. When I have to rationalize to myself why a trade makes sense, in the end I'm sorry for acting upon the mental debate just to be in the action and not "miss out" = irrational fear of loss on my part.
I sold the pre open this morning on a weak delta and was out at 9.33 for 5 pts. Although the delta was weak when I sold at 9.24 it was gaining strength by 9.29, but the damage was already in place and the shorts had control. By 9.35, despite a 6 pt drop, the delta continued to rise and so time for a long with the decision lines at 79.75 and 80 even and 80.25 The longs had plenty of horsepower to ram through these lines until exhaustion at 9.41 It is always interesting watching the filtered T & S. Trader A buys 950 @ 78.50 and seconds later Trader B sells 700 @78.50
That's it. I'd obviously much rather "miss" a trade then take a bad one. When there are no clear signals and I don't really have a feel for the direction I just pass - like this morning. I trade ER2 quite a bit and it was just really choppy this AM and continues to be now. QM is getting a nice bounce today so far. The indexes have had quite a run here lately and it seems are just trying to digest their gains. There really wasn't any major market moving news this AM, good or bad. Thus no major rallies or selloffs. Just tight ranges.
did anyone learn anything today? if u did you shouldn't be trading real money yet....more experience needed....once u have seen it a few thousand times over and over staring at the same pictures everyday we should have a firm understanding of the limited pictures possible........there are only 4 pictures...always have been always will be........ ..most days only 3.........find the 3 trade the 3.....mechanical not discretionary is the trader who wins.......except for the rare ones...............begin the cursing, whining and crying now......
by the way looking at news is for discretionary trader......news is irrelevant.........system signals are deadly important......news biases mind........system should show you the result of news, nobody emini daytrading should care why the market is moving....why is trap......the cnbc news clowns are not even good entertainment much less go source for trader stuff.....watch the chart, not the tv.......business news, etc......trade what is happening on the screen in front of you.......not what you think is going to happen ........