This morning the ER and ES bottomed near S1 values on gap-down <i>against the trend</i> openings, which were what I'd consider aggressive buy signals. Then ER gave buy signals near 765 and 766 while ES gave similar buy signals near 1373 and then 1374. Once the ramp upward halted, a fine day's wages had been offered to the long side. * But... there are many sessions where price action chops, coils and wedges all morning only to break / swing directional in the afternoon. Likewise, today's buy signals came well past the opening bell, nearer to 10:00am actually. The only time I trade last 30min of a session is on a straight trend day... the last price stretch there can be a real solid one. Other than that, most sessions are finished trading well before the closing bell rings. We expected a directional power surge today after last two sessions coiled up into tight wedge patterns. It came to fruition, profit potential was offered in a brief burst, nothing wrong with taking the rest of a day like this off.
i`m sure you`ve dropped just as much as you`ve taken in those first 30 min , skippy........50/50 are`nt great odds & you can save the drama for ya mamma.........as well as your tick charts. my first post is the best advice you`re going to get before you find out the hard way.............but i bet you like it the "hard" way....eh,skip?
FWIW... I keep records of personal trade performance at different times of the day. My highest win % and gross profits come during the period of 10:01am ~ 11:45am EST entries and then again between 2:00pm ~ 3:30pm EST entries. The 9:30am ~ 10:00am stretch is profitable, but win % is low. The midday lull between 11:45am ~ 1:00pm EST is barely profitable, almost a scratch for me. Considering I trade by hunting directional swings, those are clearly the periods where directional market action usually occurs, either intraday swings or trends.
Yes you sure are right. The time frames you talk about are the exact same I use on an intraday time frame. One can only know this by years and years and years of trading experience. Obviously some here dont. Great advice Spooz!!
Well, you can be like me, wait a few minutes and sell the absolute bottom like I did today @1370.00 and get stopped out 5 minutes later on the reversal. Thankfully, caught the run back up to save the day.
Things that this thread has made me think about; Looking at a long ES option short ES long ER2 trade, or some version of the above at the open for a low margin trade on the assumption that the market will retrace the open. Long options trades at the open in general. Trading outrights with stops would be very hard I would think. Can opening in many markets be used to make a lot of trades without spending a lot of time in front of a screen?
That's me too, but everyone's different. I'm open to learning more about detecting what's going on into the close on other days and effective ways to trade it. When I don't see a trend, or don't have a stong sense of what's next, I'm not trading.