How to trade Gold tomorrow

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ShadowTrader_08, Mar 11, 2009.

  1. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

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    Good Morning, Traders. Ok, so its time now to <i>you know what</i> or get off the pot on our <b>GLD</b> position. The last two trading days have had the yellow stuff hang around right at our 2nd entry point which has moved up a hair from the $87 area since our first entry. We made a judgement call to not just add to the postion right at the trendline so are still in just the 50 shares. Let's check the chart one more time and then spell out our gameplan for today in detail.

    <img src="" width="560" border="5" height="650">

    The trendline is perfectly intact here, so we must assume at this juncture that the trend will hold and there will be an advance back to the $1,000 level (GLD $100) and then well beyond. As we have not added to the postion yet, here is the plan for today. We will buy another 50 shares <b>GLD</b> long if we trade above yesterday's high which we are noting as a reversal bar. Our entry trigger will be a price of $89.88 which is 5 cents above yesterday's high. If this happens, our position will look like this:

    Long 50 shares at 92.15 (2/26)
    Long 50 shares at 89.88 (3/12)
    Basis on entire position now: ($92.15 + $89.88)/2 = $91.02
    New stop on entire position: 87.42 (5 cents under 3/10 low and well within $500 per trade risk parameter)

    We feel this is a very non-emotional and professional way to go about the trade. If gold opens weak this morning, we will not be adding to the position and are going to move the stop immediately on the current position to $87.42. This was the reason that we went in so lightly in the first place so that we cold afford a multi-point stop out if the trendline does not hold. If <b>GLD</b> is able to trade strongly today, then we are in for the longer haul. A stop out in either case will tell us all we need to know about the future price of gold as it will more than likely create a serious break in trend that it will not recover from any time soon.
  2. That isn't a perfect trendlne...

    I really have a problem with the way you drew that trendline...

    What about the second low on that chart...

    You didn't connect the bottoms...

    spot gold has massive support around 890 and its not because of a trendline, its just chart support.
  3. dear shadow

    looking at one market by itself is an exericise in futility

    don't be fooled

    become more global macro and you will see the light

    good luck to you sir

  4. Seems reasonable to me...I will be watching to see what happens tomorrow.
  5. Acumen


    You do know gold trading doesnt just stop at 4pm EST right?
  6. While that trendline might not be absolutely perfect, it's pretty close. Spot is showing a similar trendline and bounced neatly off it today (where I went long). I've got a stop under the trendline, so I'll get snapped on any weakness, but not going to risk moving that lower as a break below could see a sizeable correction.
  7. janvir19


    Don't worry everyone, gold has very strong long-term trendline support at around 580...which will be a great place to re-stock for the long-term move upward.

  8. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    Trading a bit higher here in early AM. We'll stick to the plan and post our entry here before noon. Might just take it right now in the premarket. Either way, I'll post a snapshot of the email with time stamp.

    Thanks to all who contributed to the thread so far.

  9. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    The full version of this report with daily stock picks and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month



    Mistakenly put March 13th on the emails instead of the 12th. -- oops!
  10. Illum


    Great call, love your vids.
    #10     Mar 12, 2009