Yeah, 2003 has sucked pretty bad. And I'm talking even from a perspective of high % , no risk arb transactions.
I think it's a mistake to categorize a year based on the first 5 weeks. The sp alone has traded in a 10%+ range already this year. While intraday, there hasn't been a lot of meat, if you have a longer horizon, you can do quite well. This is definately a fader's market. Trend followers have had trouble lately.
My advise from a business perspective is to STOP trading.....I dont know your style but I know how it feels to give back flow and its very detrimental to your psyche...there is nothing wrong with waiting it out and maybe looking for other investment opportunities......peace.....
Stopping trading or continuously switching strategies during a drawdown period for a positive expectancy strategy is precisely why traders blow up... Silk has a positive expectancy strategy over the longer run (this is apparent from his trading comments on another site)... My advice (fwiw) to Silk is to continue trading the same way he has been trading, albeit with a reduced size, taking into account position sizing considerations... what differentiates the successful from the failed trader is the ability to stomach a potentially long series of consecutive losses in implementing a positive expectancy strategy... a priori, one cannot know in advance when the equity curve can turn back upwards from a drawdown, for a positive expectancy strategy... slow bleed blow ups often originate from not being there for equity curve turns i.e. not executing a positive expectancy strategy on a consistent basis...
I know your point exactly; I'm just disagreeing with you. At 10k a clip you need to put things in perspective and as a business man I think he should stop trading ( your suggestion to trade smaller is also good ) . This is just my opinion....good luck with whatever you do Silk.....
if the dude hangs fire now, sod's law indicates that he will suddenly miss 10 straight days in a row when his system would have made him BIIIIg bux. And he will then jump back in only to find it has turned again, and he bleeds some more. Granted he won't 'blow up' in the generally accepted sense of the word, but the constant bloodletting can be just as fatal.... Scale back your size dude, and jeep doing it. It can't rain all the time.