Many who have run the numbers (I am not one of those) say markets trend 30%, 35% of the time. Range the rest of the time. So it is all well and good to say exit when current trend ends. Then jump on next trend. There is a lot of in between ... between trends.
Even in range markets there are trends. The prices trend from support to resistance and vice versa on a shorter timeframe.
That's redefining a very typical meaning of the word trend. An uptrend being comprised of higher highs/lows and a downtrend of lower lows/highs but if currently there aren't any or very few consecutively how can either direction be considered a "trend"? No IMO that is not a trend unless you want to go real granular stepping down from a daily to a 5 minute. Or a 5 minute down to a tick basis. Then you can always find a trend. Kinda like saying crack open a brewski when you get up in the morning because it is 5:00pm somewhere on the planet.
Yes, and also, it's a matter of calibrating the appropriate context for one's trading timeframe. Starting from the basic granularity; by piecing together the lower timeframe trends, they nest together to build the trends that you see on the larger timeframes. From the larger perspective the smaller trends are now trend segments that compose the larger timeframes larger trend. Price bars have sentiment which is also a trend within a single bar. This is the seed of the developing larger trend. Assembling bars in pairs creates price cases. Price cases also have trend with two bars. Price cases piece together builds tapes. Now the trend has developed into >= 3bars. Tapes are uni-directional and the change in direction creates a new tape. Two complete tapes build a channel. In other words, tapes traverse across channels that encapsulate price oscillations of a trend. Trends continue until they fail. When they fail, they begin a trend in the opposite direction. For any trend, the best and most profitable exit is the moment that is also the best and most favorable entry for the next developing opposite trend. By understanding the PV relationship and the difference between Dominance and non-Dominance then the above distinctions can be assembled in the mind. From that point they can then be perceived in the market. Until such effort and work is undertaken, then what is signal to some is noise to the vast majority.
Thanks for the dissertation which has not much to do with my response to the previous post. Trend and range or non-trend PA.
And Ranges 70%. Trends are Made Up of two components BO’s (which happens on about 10% of the bars.) And Channels. Once the first pb in BO hits then the market begins a channel (which is also Just a part of the BO trend)So......it behooves a trader to learn to trade ranges as most price action is sideways. And it behooves a trader to learn how to trade channels as they are the larger element of a trend. And it behooves a trader to learn to trade spikes or strong BO because they are often the first part of a trend and often offer quick big rewards on high probability.
Yes, but at the beginning trends are not created by the trend-followers themselves. In fact they only join the trend when it is already well established.