Is there a way to tell if the Tokyo-to-Europe market for GBPUSD or EURUSD will make a strong move (80 pips or more, either direction) vs. fluctuating up and down by 40-60 pips or so? My estimate is it fluctuates about 35-40% of the time, vs. the directional move about 60-65% of the time. This forecast would be very useful for choosing the right strategy. I've tried looking at the Economic Calendar and guessing based on announcements marked "High" vs "Low" importance, and looking at the NY market action, and 1-day MA trend indicator. So far, my guess rate is only about 40-60% accurate, which sounds like random guessing. I'm interested in if there's a site with that kind of outlook, or better techniques for making a forecast. Any suggestions? Thanks !!
A holy grail would be nice, but I was thinking more like a website with such a forecast, or a technique like comparing options positions or something. I don't know, I suppose it is kind of tough to forecast.