Most noobs don't keep averages of swings going up or down, at least 3 days so one can get a sense of how far during first 2 hours, lunch and last couple hours. After a swing, often times there are small breaks of pivots by point in ES, if there is a couple of them, it may form rounding tops, so retracement is not an opportunity for continuation of trend but losses if one went long. No, it don't happen all the time, but less chances of being profitable.
Try following economic calendars closely, keep an eye on central bank news, and watch market reactions to major geopolitical events!